It is true that Medvedev resigned. There are seven months left before the resignation of Medvedev's government. How realistic is Dmitry Medvedev's resignation?
One of the inevitable consequences of the presidential elections in 2018 and the entry of the elected president into a new term in May was the dissolution of the previous composition of the Russian government. Such a requirement is contained in the country's constitution, and the government could not help but be dissolved. IN at the moment The composition of the new government is being formed, and so far only those who will have to occupy the highest positions in the cabinet of ministers are known. In particular, it came as a surprise to some that Dmitry Medvedev, who has held this post since 2012, is again becoming prime minister. Although, in fact, there is no special surprise. Why was Dmitry Medvedev not dismissed from his post as prime minister after the elections, as many Russians wanted? possible reasons such a decision of the president.
The decision on who becomes prime minister in Russia is made by the president.
The first and most important thing that we must clearly understand when discussing why Prime Minister Medvedev was not dismissed is that the decision on the candidacy of the head of government is made by the president of the country, and he has his own considerations in this regard.
At the moment when President Putin decides whether to keep Dmitry Medvedev as prime minister, the last thing he thinks about is what opinion ordinary Russians have on this matter.
Of course, we can’t get inside the president’s head to find out all the reasons why Medvedev is the right choice for him. the best option as prime minister. Nevertheless, some reasons are quite understandable, including those spoken about by those who personally know the president, have been watching him for a long time and can imagine his train of thought.
The first reason is that the Prime Minister could potentially become acting. president
According to the Russian Constitution, it is the chairman of the government who is the second person in the state and the person who certain cases may become acting head of state.
Let us recall that in the first months of 2000, Vladimir Putin himself was acting. president when his political father Boris Yeltsin resigned.
On the one hand, there seems to be no reason to think about such things as serious illness, the need to transfer power during an operation, etc. On the other hand, no one is insured against anything, including some kind of emergency. And it would be desirable for the current president to be replaced in some extreme situation by a person whom he completely trusts.
The second reason is gratitude for 2008-2012.
No matter how one views Medvedev’s reign as president in 2008-2012. his ill-wishers and even President Putin himself, what is important for the current head of state is that Medvedev, having formally received a higher post, then remained completely loyal to him. And most importantly, in 2012 he unquestioningly handed over the top post back, burying his political ambitions. And he did this despite some support from the elite, part of which wanted a second term for Medvedev.
Of course, President Putin well remembers and appreciates the personal loyalty demonstrated by his old St. Petersburg comrade Medvedev.
And this reason is inextricably linked with the first - the second person in the country is not only the person whom the president trusts, but also a proven person.
Reason three - Medvedev is an excellent lightning rod
Dmitry Medvedev, as prime minister, is an excellent lightning rod for popular dissatisfaction with the falling standard of living. While in fact the head of state is responsible for this, including having done a lot to ensure that the country fell under the sanctions of developed countries of the world, and respect and trust in Russia in the world dropped to its lowest point, within the country he, thanks to these same actions looks like a hero.
At the same time, people rarely associate the direct consequences of Vladimir Putin's heroic steps in the foreign arena with his name. In their minds, the head of the Cabinet is to blame.
This is a fairly simple move, but it has worked at all times and continues to work today. Medvedev's slightly ridiculous and slightly rustic image makes him an excellent performer in this role.
Reason four - Medvedev should stay because many are demanding his resignation
In the spring of 2017, the person of Dmitry Medvedev was in the sights of many millions of Russians, and thousands of people demanded his resignation on the street, participating in rallies across the country. The reason for this was a large investigation published by Alexei Navalny at the beginning of the year. In that investigation, the main critic of the Russian government accused Medvedev of large-scale corruption and huge bribes, which the head of the Cabinet allegedly received through slush funds.
It is known that President Putin fundamentally “does not give in to pressure” and does not do anything at anyone’s request. And the accusations similar topics, which were put forward against Medvedev, strengthen the position of any official, no matter who he is. If there had been no Navalny investigation, Medvedev would have had to invent one himself to strengthen his position in the elite.
Reason five - real power in the country remains with the president
And this is an important reason. From the point of view of what policies are pursued by the Russian authorities within the country and abroad, it does not matter who the prime minister is. Nothing will change from this.
Even if we forget that the ministers of power governments are directly subordinate to the President of Russia, it is worth noting that economic meetings of government members are always held with the participation of Putin. The government in Russia is a rather independent body, and the head of the cabinet is required, first of all, to have personal loyalty to the president, and only then - professionalism.
The question of who will be prime minister after the elections was not raised by anyone during the elections themselves. Three-quarters of Russians voted supported Vladimir Putin's candidacy, without asking any questions about what he would do in the coming years. Thus, they supported all his decisions in advance, including regarding personnel appointments. This means that these people should not be surprised why Medvedev was not dismissed after the elections.
There is an opinion that the resignation of the government after the elections is a purely procedural phenomenon. Often Russians don't even notice him.
According to the law, the newly elected president submits the candidacy of the chairman of the government to the State Duma within 2 weeks after taking office. After approval, the Prime Minister, within a week, submits proposals to the head of state on the structure of federal executive bodies, and also proposes candidates for the positions of Deputy Prime Minister and federal ministers.
Political scientists believe that such a legislative loophole would be useful for Vladimir Putin’s new term if he becomes president again in the elections in March. Therefore, changes in the government, in their opinion, are inevitable. However, their scale is still difficult to assess.
By the way, sociologists also talk about this, who have long recorded negativity in society towards the government, in particular towards the prime minister.
“Society needs changes. A whole series studies show that all the negativity that exists among Russian residents regarding the situation within the country and in domestic policy, is often associated specifically with the figure of the prime minister. So from this point of view, the resignation of the government and the prime minister will make some sense,” said the sociologist Alexey Novikov.
The main task of such changes is to combat stagnation, including the rotation of Putin’s “friends” under his patronage - the so-called “Politburo 2.0”, inter-clan struggle in which can lead to a serious crisis in the country.
“The results of this inter-clan struggle cannot be predicted, since they depend not only on the objective balance of power, but also on the personal attitude towards certain characters of Putin himself. On the other hand, he is interested in both maintaining balance and expanding Politburo 2.0. This will dictate possible changes in the government,” the political scientist noted. Sergey Komaritsyn.
Changes can be dictated by the course taken towards rejuvenation. However, experts are sure that no new “bright” politicians should be expected. Most likely, these will be the same technocrats who unquestioningly carry out the orders of the president and easily fit into the vertical of power.
« General course personnel policy in the new government, most likely, it will be the same - “young technocrats” will appear. At the same time, everyone does not understand very well who these “technocrats” are? There are some meanings that are very beneficial from the point of view of propaganda - focus on tasks, technological effectiveness, lack of clan connections. But precise definition there was no word from the authorities,” said the political scientist Victor Poturemsky.
For Russians themselves, a change of government can have a positive function and hope that the head of state will take a course that is not foreign policy, but on the internal, says sociologist Alexey Novikov.
As for Dmitry Medvedev specifically as Prime Minister, experts are confident that no scandals surrounding his personality will be able to influence Putin’s decision. The President will be guided by personal favor even to the detriment of common cause, political scientists are sure.
“Medvedev is a very weak prime minister. But here the question is about obligations, general biography and personal relationships. If Medvedev really wants to remain as prime minister, Putin will leave him, despite the fact that this is harmful to the cause. Putin is not very interested in demonstration - in the sense of early retirement before the elections; it doesn't add anything special to him. But it may cause slight psychological trauma to Medvedev. Putin will not offend Medvedev,” the political scientist said Sergey Komaritsyn.
We cannot exclude the fact that, in essence, the Prime Minister is a convenient “whipping boy” on whom all the people’s negativity is poured. And Dmitry Medvedev, experts are sure, copes with this role very well. In this regard, it would be irrational to reform the government and subordinate it directly to the president, although there has been a lot of talk about this scenario lately.
“If the question is whether he can do it technically, then yes, he probably can. If the question is whether it’s worth doing, then probably not. Because in this case, all responsibility for what is happening in the country will be transferred to him and, accordingly, all the negativity of voters, which now concerns the person of Medvedev, will be transferred to the head of state,” the sociologist emphasized Alexey Novikov.
“Medvedev is extremely convenient as a lightning rod through which protest against the federal government escapes. The model is established. There are no external reasons for changing it yet. I think it will continue after the elections. There are scenarios that could affect his departure based on the results of the March elections, but for now these scenarios are unlikely,” the political scientist noted Victor Poturemsky.
One of these possible scenarios is the merger of the Supreme and Constitutional Courts in the media. If the reform happens, it is likely that the “super court” will be headed by Medvedev. However, experts are confident that little will change for him in this case.
“The problem of status for Medvedev has only psychological significance. His real position under Putin will remain the same as it is now, regardless of his position,” the political scientist noted Sergey Komaritsyn.
Little will change in the post of Prime Minister. According to experts, another prime minister will not be much different from the previous one.
Thus, it is unlikely that a woman will become prime minister, despite the fact that the Speaker of the Federation Council Valentina Matvienko and the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina are increasingly appearing in the federal media in connection with this topic.
One should also not expect that a person with strong political overtones will come to the Russian government. According to Krasnoyarsk political scientists, this can happen only in one case.
“For 18 years we had “technical” premieres (during the “tandem” period there was a “technical” president). Why should this change? When Putin starts thinking about a successor, then a person with different characteristics will appear,” the political scientist argues. Sergey Komaritsyn.
If, for various reasons, we are still talking about replacing Medvedev, then his position could well be taken by a politician from Krasnoyarsk.
“Of the current government, the most prepared for such a role is our fellow countryman Alexander Novak. He has all the prerequisites for this - biography, work at the level of a large corporation, region, federal ministries, experience, knowledge, abilities, international fame, the scale of current tasks, proximity and - which is very important - in his current capacity he is Putin’s unconditional nominee.” , the political scientist suggested Sergey Komaritsyn.
Changes may also occur in the ruling United Russia party. It is already known that it will be rebranded. It is possible that the management may also change. The need for these changes was loudly announced by Putin’s self-nomination in the elections.
“If we understand this statement in the context of public political communication, then it means, in essence, a simple thing: “United Russia” does not provide the current president with a significant advantage in elections. Actually, everything that follows after this is rebranding. You can try to follow the logic further - this, in turn, may mean that the party, under the existing leadership, is not solving the tasks assigned to it,” said the sociologist Alexey Novikov.
However, according to experts, not only United Russia, but also the entire party system of the country needs such a rebranding.
“What is happening now in the presidential elections shows the deep crisis in which literally everyone finds themselves political parties. We built and built the party system, developed it in order to obtain a shortage of party candidates, replacements, non-participation in the main elections of the country. Plus Putin's self-nomination. The need for reforms of the party system and rebranding of parties is overripe and inevitable,” the political scientist said Victor Poturemsky.
Obviously, there is no need to wait for a “reset” of power after the elections: rather, there will be re-elections. But it is also obvious, experts say, that first of all the old new president will have to figure out what internal political problems the government will solve and with what help. However, we can already safely say that after the elections the dynamics of political and economic events in the country will increase significantly.
Photo: Aleksander Khitrov, Dmitry Medvedev, Reuters, Dmitry Koshcheev, Kremlin
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The problem of removing Medvedev from power has been going on for a very long time. It is not based at all on his personal successes. Medvedev follows the line of the Romanovs and has a very pure pedigree. This is one parent at a time. And according to the second - from the daughter of Christ. I wrote about this in my novel “The Battle for the World Throne” (2014), as well as in my book “The Metaphysics of Power. World government and its victims" (2016).
Readers can treat this genealogy however they wish. Anyway, their opinion doesn’t interest anyone and doesn’t affect anything. And the fact that Medvedev is at the pinnacle of power will definitely not affect it. Let me remind you that after numerous publications and interviews about his origins, he (and maybe someone else) gave the order to destroy all these publications. Therefore, the remains of the interview can only be found on the resources of Medvedev’s homeland – Armenia and on some other resources of the Caucasus region.
On August 1, the Financial Times website published an article in Timothy Ash’s column with the headline “Russia’s long-term aims and how the west will respond.” The article predicts major changes in the structure of power in Russia after the parliamentary elections in September.
YES. Medvedev with Prince Michael of Kent, brother of the Queen of Great Britain
In particular, the author believes that Medvedev may be dismissed, and a reformer, for example Kudrin, may be appointed in his place. The analyst suggested that by inviting Kudrin, Putin would not seek to carry out risky economic reforms. Similar appointment the Russian president will try to send a signal of readiness to interact with Western countries.
As Ash notes, Kudrin’s appointment may correspond to the “will of the people” expressed in the Duma elections, and will also coincide with the presidential elections in the United States. This decision may also affect the discussion of the extension of anti-Russian sanctions in December 2016.
Western political scientists do not understand what they are writing about. They really think that in a world where democracy has won, real freedom can exist. This, of course, is funny: freedom and democracy are two mutually exclusive concepts. Democracy is the element of the crowd that destroys everything, and freedom is the opportunity to be outside the crowd.
As for Kudrin, this guy tried to stage a coup last summer, and in his peaceful state he occupies a position much higher than the prime minister of the Russian government.
Kudrin is the person who supervises the divisions of the Federal Reserve System in Russia (the Stabilization Fund returned to Russia - in the form of Kudrin's revolution).
Given his background, removing Dmitry Medvedev as prime minister is more difficult than conquering the United States. The entire Romanov gang signed up for Dmitry Anatolyevich. And this is the whole world.
Therefore, understanding this, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov, in response to numerous requests to comment on the media report about changes in the government, called this information the usual “exercises of political scientists” and speculations not worthy of attention.
“Exercises on the topic of the “imminent resignation of the government” are not new, both in political science circles in Russia and abroad,” he said.
“We know that with enviable consistency they all read the tea leaves, with less or more certainty they predict the resignation of individual members of the government, the entire cabinet, the prime minister, and so on,” Peskov noted.
However, on July 28, Russian President Vladimir Putin reshuffled 10 officials at the highest administrative level in one day. And to a greater extent, this reshuffle was made in order to remove people who had already been brought into power by the heiress of the Third Reich, Maria Hohenzollern. In particular, Vladimir Putin removed the governor of Sevastopol Sergei Menyailo and removed the head of the Federal Customs Service (FCS) Andrei Belyaninov (Echo of our publications: Putin removed the friends of Masha Hohenzollern).
Dmitry Medvedev, perhaps without knowing it, also became dirty with the vibes that Maria Hohenzollern exudes. It is not known how deep his ignorance in this matter went. But Medvedev’s wife often fraternized with the so-called “queen.”
Echo Masha: How will Medvedev be sent into retirement?
As for the post of Prime Minister, the candidacy of the person who will occupy it in the near future was approved a month ago. This is the head of one of the government institutions, who has proven himself to be the best over the previous four years.
The candidacy of the one who will become the speaker of the State Duma of the future convocation has also been approved.
The issue with Medvedev remains difficult. The Romanov clan does not allow him to be moved. But the Russian economy is already choking. If a clear leader is not placed at the head of the Russian government this fall, then by winter the country may experience riots.
Actually, this is what the people of Maria Hohenzollern are trying to achieve. I think that the President of Russia will not limit himself to the recent reshuffles...
Andrey Tyunyaev, editor-in-chief newspapers "President"
Echo Masha:...
Medvedev is from the Romanov-Windsor clan.
He is a lifelong Olympian!
YES. Medvedev tries quite sincerely and many things fail. But you can't jump over your head. He is eternal like Chubais.
He, a humanist, lacks TECHNICAL intelligence, knowledge of the four operations of arithmetic. Simple friendly explanations, everyday situations. Medvedev is clearly humanly limited in communication, normal communication, on equal terms. There is no one to tell him. Yes, and he has no one to talk to, there are no friends for a long time, or so few, and they are already so far in status and rank from D.A. that they can no longer simply tell something on equal terms. Sycophants and envious people surround not the old, but already exhausted Prime Minister. He has a huge deficit in human communication.
They will not contradict him: they bow, but do not carry out orders, they whisper in their secret apartments, plot intrigues and leak information. It is clear that Medvedev, speaking publicly, often and honestly suffers, but cannot do anything!
So, I went in the winter for the New Year holidays to unwind in the USA on vacation, and I realized that we have a stronger backbone and nuclear weapons, only Russia had and still has. Medvedev understood and learned a lot during his years at the top of the power pyramid. But you won’t be satisfied with the contradictory information that the intelligence services feed him. To make decisions on this often unreliable and inverted information, it is difficult or even impossible for him to make decisions. That's what we need, manipulators! Coaches and psychologists, the inner circle (which does not exist) need to carefully work on HIS role. He has not yet matured and is hot-tempered, like a young teacher, ready to carefully chew on an obviously stupid student, with complete dedication, just to get the loser out! Due to his youth and gentleness, he has not yet learned: “Push him who is falling!” Sitting and watching TV, it is clear that much is still hidden from Medvedev and he is simply not allowed to see many things! This is what manipulators take advantage of.
Give Dmitry Anatolyevich more testosterone. WADA will not sue him, he is already a lifelong Olympian!
Be patient, maybe he will become a super patriot!
D. Trump - it will pass. Reformatting of the USA and the World is underway in full swing! All agreements are respected. USA-Russia - a single organism!
Materials on KONT
Well FINALLY! Just Russia, headed by Sergei Mironov, they finally began real movement in the government and at least one person understood what Medvedev’s government was leading Russia to, namely Medvedev himself, whom Putin appointed to the role of prime minister.
According to Sergei Mironov, Medvedev needs to resign as quickly as possible, otherwise he will come up with even more dirty laws for the people of Russia. Personally, I cannot but agree with this opinion, because this is really so and it will be interesting to observe from the outside how power goes against power and hurray, for the sake of the people! But it’s too early to rejoice; of course, there are conditions so that signatures do not go to waste.
According to Sergei Mironov and A Just Russia, he will need about 10 million votes from Russians for Medvedev to leave the government, and of course, what is a collection of signatures without a name? The name of this event, as in the title of the article, was given by the media - “Medvedev resign.” And so, but this is still far from the most interesting thing that you could find out, we started collecting signatures, then okay, but for what merits and what exactly Sergei Mironov said, this is interesting, we read on together.
Sergei Mironov from A Just Russia began collecting signatures against Medvedev: “We are starting to collect 10 million signatures for Medvedev’s resignation from the government Russian Federation. Medvedev, combines the positions of prime minister and leader" United Russia", having a majority of seats in the State Duma, accordingly with such a leader, they can accept all his bills and reforms that he says, this does not suit us, just like the people of Russia who did not vote for Medvedev, because Putin promised to change the government , but in fact he left it.
The point is this, of course we understand what terrible reforms Medvedev is now proposing, and we also know that the people of Russia don’t like this, so we understand perfectly well that rallies in this country will not do anything, we need to act officially, briefly, through the courts, namely, collecting signatures.
You might think that the main reasons for this decision to collect 10 million signatures for Medvedev’s resignation are the pension age reform, but no, it’s much worse. Mr. Dmitry Medvedev has not kept his promises for a long time and is doing many things to the detriment of people, but not only people, and undermines the trust of the government.
The first reason for Medvedev's resignation is the unfulfilled forty-year promises to repair apartments in poor condition. As long as Medvedev is in power, he promises as much, but the houses were never repaired, there were emergencies associated with them, and people suffered from the destruction of these very houses.
The second reason that Medvedev deserved his resignation and, accordingly, why we began collecting signatures for his resignation is the abolition of the customs tax. As is known, it did not follow. Medvedev's government promised to raise excise taxes on gasoline and abolish the transport tax.
But gasoline prices have soared, the tax has not been abolished, this is a lie that people are tired of. And accordingly, of course, his reform to raise the retirement age, the VAT from United Russia, which has already been adopted, is all being adopted against the people, my party A Just Russia and I believe that such a person needs to be removed, he needs to be sent into retirement. Medvedev resign!
And at the end of this gorgeous speech in the Duma from Sergei Mironov, I note that he noted the bar of 10 million signatures, in his opinion, that’s how many people’s signatures are needed for this person to leave the government through the court, or by at will, when he sees that such a large number of people are against his candidacy for the post of head of the government of the Russian Federation, or rather prime minister. We will, of course, monitor the development of the event; look, for the first time in history it will actually be possible to remove a person from the government based on the signatures of only 10 million people.
Well, on my own behalf I would like to say that yes, people very quickly forget what is happening in the country, what the authorities promise, and what they do not fulfill. But then, apparently, Sergei Mironov, together with the guys from his party “A Just Russia,” sat down in the evening and remembered all the mistakes of this man, because he sees that people take to the streets, and the police are twisting them, people can’t do anything. And so, when a person from the government, and not a little-known one at that, tries to collect 10 million signatures for Medvedev’s resignation, there is hope that life can still be good and without problems in Russia, and there are smart people left who can judge competently and take sides defenseless people.
In the coming days, the internal political situation in Russia may change dramatically. This opinion, as reported by the correspondent RIA "New Day", said a famous economist, director of the Institute of Contemporary Economics Nikita Isaev, speaking today at the expert round table in Moscow. He did not rule out that the President of the Russian Federation will announce serious decisions next week during the traditional December press conference. Vladimir Putin.
"I expect a change political system in the country. I believe this will be announced in the near future at Vladimir Putin’s speech next week. I do not rule out the resignation of the Russian government and possible dissolution State Duma, because it is no longer possible to further tighten the tax burden at the expense of the population and reduce social spending. This is the critical stage we are at now,” Isaev said.
He noted that the situation is fueled by international isolation, NATO plans and sanctions pressure, “associated with restrictive measures on public debt, a decrease in the possibility of borrowing volumes, and a decrease in lending to our companies with state participation in projects with international participation - these are Power of Siberia and Northern stream - 2,” which will have to be done, first of all, at your own expense.”
“In general, economic issues fade into the background,” says Isaev. – Now political will will be the basis for, among other things, economic changes in the country. Until now in modern Russia – I mean, since 2000 – this has not happened.”
At the same time, according to the expert, the price of oil may fall to $50 per barrel as early as January. “And this suggests that the price of oil calculated in the budget at $63.4 is no longer sustainable, that is, the budget will need to be revised,” he noted, recalling that revenues in excess of $41.6 per barrel are sent to the National Welfare Fund.
According to Isaev, the country will expect a budget revision in the first quarter of 2019. At the same time, in his opinion, it is unlikely that the volume of transfers to the National Welfare Fund will be reduced even if prices for “black gold” fall. “This is the main feeder of our economy,” Isaev explained. “And our economy is made up of state-owned corporations, which are inherently unprofitable.”
The results of 2018, according to Isaev, were the depletion of the “Kremlin’s food supply”, due to which it was possible to overcome all crises recent years, since the price of oil no longer ensures the functioning of all state corporations.
“For the most part, they (state corporations) are unprofitable and live off tax breaks – for example, Russian Railways, which receive significant reductions in property taxes and VAT,” he noted. – The same applies to Gazprom, which pays half of the income tax, and Rosneft, which in the 2nd quarter significantly reduces its income tax payments. The second is the regular non-payment of dividends to the state, practiced by our wonderful corporations. And their investment programs are increasing in volume - both Russian Railways, Gazprom, Rosneft, and so on. Therefore, all existing balances are needed solely for the survival of these state-owned companies.”
According to Isaev, the system is no longer able to withstand such a situation. Despite the fact that in next year we are entering with unpopular decisions - this is an increase in excise taxes on fuel, which will affect the acceleration of inflation, an increase in VAT, an increase in the key tax, indirect taxes, a tax for the self-employed, these measures will not save the budget, which risks going from a surplus to a deficit - since the money will be sent to the National Welfare Fund .
“We will have a hole of 2 trillion, which will be borrowed from the domestic market,” Isaev predicts. “And taking into account the decline in oil prices, the size of this deficit will be even greater than in the budgets of the most crisis years of 15-16.”
Considering that the Russian government has neither an anti-crisis plan nor a country development strategy that would correspond to today’s economic parameters, there are no real sectoral or regional strategies, and the Cabinet of Ministers is engaged in manual control, a social crisis may break out in the country as early as 2019.
“We are observing a discussion regarding the protest history, regarding the violation of the social contract that has been fixed for a long time in Russia,” the expert noted. – I think that the street protest will have an impact on the economic and social policy in the country, this will also apply to the unbalanced situation with spending on the law enforcement system and the armed forces. The question, by the way, is in which direction - either there will be an increase in spending on the law enforcement system, or a decrease in favor of social system states."
In the remaining two weeks of 2018, Russians hardly need to fear a new devaluation of the ruble, Isaev believes. “Firstly, the debts of our wonderful state corporations, which then got involved in the corresponding work, which actually ensured a two-fold devaluation - now these debts are less, and there is now a greater margin of safety due to the high price of oil,” the expert explained.
Moscow, Tatyana Dorofeeva
