Social forecasting: forms and methods
Social Forecasting– an interdisciplinary set of studies related to identifying options for the development of social processes and selecting the most acceptable ones that can ensure their implementation.
Types of social forecasts
Forecasting method: predictive extrapolation, expert assessment method, brainstorming, Delphi method, etc.
Social Forecasting– foresight, trends and prospects for possible development social system, the forecast is general and abstract:
Forecast extrapolation method;
Method of expert assessments;
Collective expertise, brain stage;
Modeling method;
Method of mathematical modeling.
Word " forecasting " comes from a Greek word meaning foresight or prediction. However, social forecasting is not one of the types of foresight, but the next stage, which is associated with process management.
IN himself in a general sense forecasting means development of a forecast in the form of formulating a probabilistic judgment about the state of a phenomenon in the future.
In a narrow sense forecasting means special research prospects for the development of a phenomenon, mainly with quantitative estimates and indicating more or less definite periods of change in this phenomenon.
The forecast does not provide solutions to the problems of the future. Its task is to promote scientific substantiation of development plans and programs. Forecasting characterizes a possible set of necessary ways and means of implementing the planned action program.
Forecast should be kept in mind a probabilistic statement about the future with a relatively high degree of certainty. Its difference from foresight is that the latter is interpreted as an improbability statement about the future, based on absolute certainty, or (another approach) is a logically constructed model of a possible future with an as yet undetermined level of certainty. It is easy to find out that the degree of reliability of statements about the future is used as the basis for distinguishing terms. At the same time, it is obvious that forecasting is based on the ambiguity of development.
The forecast has a specific nature and is necessarily associated with certain quantitative estimates. In accordance with this, the author classifies the expected number of crimes in the next calendar year as forecasts, and the early release of a prisoner under certain conditions as predictions.
We can conclude that a prediction is a qualitative assessment of the future, and a forecast is a quantitative assessment of the future.
Social Forecasting- identification of development options and selection of the most acceptable, optimal based on resources, time and social forces capable of ensuring their implementation. Social forecasting is working with alternatives, in-depth analysis of the degree of probability and the multivariance of possible solutions.
At the same time, it is necessary to note the distinctive, specific features of social forecasting. They can be distinguished as follows.
Firstly, the formulation of the goal here is relatively general and abstract: it allows for a high degree of probability. The purpose of forecasting is, based on an analysis of the state and behavior of the system in the past and the study of possible trends in changes in factors influencing the system under consideration, to correctly determine the probabilistic quantitative and qualitative parameters of its development in the future, to reveal options for the situation in which the system will find itself.
Secondly, social forecasting does not have a prescriptive nature.
In conclusion, we can say that the qualitative difference between a variant forecast and specific plan is that the forecast provides information to justify decisions and select planning methods. It indicates the possibility of one or another path of development in the future, and the plan expresses a decision about which of the possibilities society will realize.
There is a marked difference between forecasting within the natural and technical sciences, on the one hand, and within the social sciences, on the other. The weather forecast, for example, can be determined with a high degree of probability. But at the same time, it cannot be canceled by a management decision. Within small limits, a person can consciously change the state of the weather (for example, it is possible to clear the sky of clouds in connection with a major public holiday or stimulate avalanches in the mountains), but these are very rare cases of counteracting the forecast. Basically, a person has to adapt his actions to the weather (take an umbrella if it is expected to rain, put on warmer clothes if it is expected to get cold, etc.).
The specificity of social forecasting is that the prediction of social phenomena and processes and their management are closely related. Having predicted an undesirable social process, we can stop it or modify it so that it does not show its negative qualities. Having predicted a positive process, we can actively promote its development, contribute to its expansion across the territory of action, coverage of people, duration of manifestation, etc.
Social innovation has specificity among other innovations: if in the scientific, technical, economic spheres the meaning of innovation is to achieve greater efficiency, then in the social sphere, establishing efficiency is problematic. How is this determined?
1. In the social sphere, improving the situation of some people can create tension (sometimes only psychological) for others. Social innovation is assessed through the prism of a value-normative system.
2. The successful solution of some social problems may give rise to other problems or may turn out to be a success not in the sense in which the task was understood.
There are three main specific forecasting method: extrapolation, modeling, examination.
The classification of forecasting into extrapolation, modeling and examination is quite conditional, since forecasting models involve extrapolation and expert assessments, the latter are the results of extrapolation and modeling, etc. The development of forecasts also uses methods of analogy, deduction, induction, various statistical methods, economic , sociological, etc.
Extrapolation method.
This method was one of the historically first methods that became widely used in social forecasting. Extrapolation - this is the extension of conclusions drawn from the study of one part of a phenomenon (process) to another part, including the unobservable. In the social field, it is a way of predicting future events and conditions, based on the assumption that some trends that have manifested themselves in the past and present will continue.
An example of extrapolation: a series of numbers 1, 4, 9, 16 suggests that the next number will be 25, since the beginning of the series is made up of the squares of the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4. We extrapolated the found principle to the unwritten part of the series.
Extrapolation is widely used in demography when calculating the future population size, its age, sex and family structures, etc. Using this method, future rejuvenation or aging of the population can be calculated, and characteristics of fertility, mortality, marriage rates can be given in periods that are several times distant from the present decades.
By using computer programs(Exel, etc.) can be post-
draw extrapolation in the form of a graph in accordance with the existing formulas.
However, in social forecasting, the ability of extrapolation as a forecasting method is somewhat limited. This is due to a number of reasons that are related to the fact that social processes develop over time. This limits the ability to accurately model them. Thus, up to a certain point, the process can slowly increase, and then a period of rapid development begins, which ends with a saturation stage. After this, the process stabilizes again. If such features of the course of social processes are not taken into account, then the use of the extrapolation method may lead to an error.
2. Modeling.Modeling is a method of studying objects of knowledge on their analogues (models) - real or mental.
An analogue of an object can be, for example, its layout (reduced, proportionate or enlarged), drawing, diagram, etc. In the social sphere, mental models are used more often. Working with models allows you to transfer experimentation from a real social object to its mentally constructed duplicate and avoid the risk of failure, all the more dangerous for people management decision. Main feature mental model and consists in the fact that it can be subject to any tests, which practically consist in the fact that the parameters of itself and the environment in which it (as an analogue of a real object) exists change. This is a huge advantage of the model. It can also act as a model, a kind of ideal type, approaching which may be desirable for the creators of the project.
In social design, it is more accurate to say that a model created on the basis of a plan and preliminary information makes it possible to identify, clarify and limit the goals of the project being developed.
At the same time, the disadvantage of the model is its simplicity. In it, certain properties and characteristics of a real object are coarsened or not taken into account at all as unimportant. If this were not done, working with the model would be extremely complicated, and the model itself would not contain dense, compact information about the object. And yet here lies possible errors applications of modeling to social design and forecasting.
“The idea that has been ingrained since school years that a model can only be mathematical is deeply erroneous. The model can also be formulated in natural language.”
This circumstance is important to take into account in social design. Modeling techniques can facilitate design tasks and make the project visible. Many, while conducting a conversation, hold a sheet of paper in front of them and, as they present their point of view, record the main points, indicate with arrows and other signs the connections between them, etc. This is one of the common forms visualization, widely used in modeling. Visualization can more clearly reveal the essence of the problem and clearly indicate in which directions it can be solved and where to expect success and where to fail.
The value of non-mathematical modeling for social design is very great. The model allows not only to develop an effective management decision, but also to simulate conflict situations, likely when making a decision, and ways to reach agreement.
In fact, any type of business game is a simulation.
Analysis and modeling of social systems have recently developed into an autonomous sociological discipline with original mathematical software.
3. Expertise. A special method of forecasting is examination. In social design, it is used not only to solve problems of predictive justification, but also wherever it is necessary to deal with issues with a low level of certainty of the parameters to be studied.
Expertise in the context of artificial intelligence research is interpreted as resolution of difficult to formalize(or poorly formalized) tasks. Having arisen in connection with programming problems, this understanding of expertise has acquired a system-wide character. It is the difficulty of formalizing a certain problem that makes other methods of its research, except for examination, ineffective. As we find a way to describe a problem using formal means, the role of precise measurements and calculations and, on the contrary, the effectiveness of using expert assessments decreases.
There are three main specific forecasting methods: extrapolation, modeling, and examination.
The classification of forecasting into extrapolation, modeling and examination is quite conditional, since forecasting models involve extrapolation and expert assessments, the latter are the results of extrapolation and modeling, etc. The development of forecasts also uses methods of analogy, deduction, induction, various statistical methods, economic , sociological, etc.
1. Extrapolation method.
This method was one of the historically first methods that became widely used in social forecasting. Extrapolation is the extension of conclusions drawn from studying one part of a phenomenon (process) to another part, including the unobservable. In the social field, it is a way of predicting future events and conditions, based on the assumption that some trends that have manifested themselves in the past and present will continue.
An example of extrapolation: a series of numbers 1, 4, 9, 16 suggests that the next number will be 25, since the beginning of the series is made up of the squares of the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4. We extrapolated the found principle to the unwritten part of the series.
Extrapolation is widely used in demography when calculating the future population size, its age, sex and family structures, etc. Using this method, future rejuvenation or aging of the population can be calculated, and characteristics of fertility, mortality, marriage rates can be given in periods that are several times distant from the present decades.
Using computer programs (Excel, etc.) you can post-
draw extrapolation in the form of a graph in accordance with the existing formulas.
However, in social forecasting, the ability of extrapolation as a forecasting method is somewhat limited. This is due to a number of reasons that are related to the fact that social processes develop over time. This limits the ability to accurately model them. Thus, up to a certain point, the process can slowly increase, and then a period of rapid development begins, which ends with a saturation stage. After this, the process stabilizes again. If such features of the course of social processes are not taken into account, then the use of the extrapolation method may lead to an error.
2. Modeling.
Modeling is a method of studying objects of knowledge on their analogues (models) - real or mental.
An analogue of an object can be, for example, its layout (reduced, proportionate or enlarged), drawing, diagram, etc. In the social sphere, mental models are used more often. Working with models allows you to transfer experimentation from a real social object to its mentally constructed duplicate and avoid the risk of an unsuccessful management decision, especially dangerous for people. The main feature of a mental model is that it can be subject to any tests, which practically consist of changing the parameters of itself and the environment in which it (as an analogue of a real object) exists. This is a huge advantage of the model. It can also act as a model, a kind of ideal type, approaching which may be desirable for the creators of the project.
3. Expertise.
A special method of forecasting is examination. In social design, it is used not only to solve problems of predictive justification, but also wherever it is necessary to deal with issues with a low level of certainty of the parameters to be studied.
Expertise in the context of artificial intelligence research is interpreted as resolution of difficult to formalize(or poorly formalized) tasks. Having arisen in connection with programming problems, this understanding of expertise has acquired a system-wide character. It is the difficulty of formalizing a certain problem that makes other methods of its research, except for examination, ineffective. As we find a way to describe a problem using formal means, the role of precise measurements and calculations increases and, on the contrary, the effectiveness of using expert assessments decreases.
So, expertise is the study of a difficult-to-formalize problem, which is carried out by forming an opinion (preparing an opinion) of a specialist who is able to compensate for the lack or lack of systematic information on the issue under study with his knowledge, intuition, experience in solving similar problems and relying on “common sense”.
Social project is subject to examination throughout its development and implementation.
At the concept development stage, many indicators are established by experts by which the effectiveness of the project will be measured.
Assessing the viability of a project is largely based on expert judgment both regarding the project and the social environment in which it is being implemented.
Diagnostic and prognostic research in the social field is impossible without the use of expert methods.
When the prepared text of the project is reviewed by competition commissions, investors, state authorities and local governments, and other organizations that make management decisions on the project, an examination is also carried out.
The project is expertly assessed within the framework current control for its implementation.
Finally, the completion of the project, establishing whether it was possible to implement it in accordance with the plan, also requires examination.
If we proceed from the essence of the concepts developed by these authors, then management appears as a conscious social process, based on reliable knowledge of the based systematic influence of the subject of management (managed subsystem) on social object(managed subsystem) through decision-making, planning, organization and control necessary to ensure the effective functioning and development of the social system (organization), achieving its goal
Modern management is guided by several fundamental principles:
1. The principle of organic interdependence and integrity of the subject and object of management. Management as a process of purposeful and organizing influence of a subject (control subsystem) on an object (team, organization, technical system etc.) must form a single complex system, having one goal, connection with the external environment, feedback from a goal to action aimed at achieving it.
2. The principle of state legality of the management system of an organization, company, institution. Its essence is this: the organizational and legal form of the company must meet the requirements and norms of state legislation.
3. The principle of ensuring internal legal regulation of the creation, functioning and development of the organization. All activities of the organization must be carried out in accordance with the requirements of the internal charter ( constituent agreement), the content of which must comply with the legislation of the country.
4. Principle of hiring a manager. In accordance with this requirement, the issue of appointing or selecting a manager is decided. This is determined by the content of the activities, goals and objectives of the manager.
5. The principle of unity of specialization and unification of management processes. Specialization increases its effectiveness. However, this cannot always be used due to the low repeatability of management processes. Therefore, specialization must be complemented by the universalization of management and the development of general methods.
6. The principle of multivariate management decisions. This principle is dictated by the need to make a choice of one rational and effective solution from many possible ones, including alternative solutions to perform the functions of the system and achieve its goal.
7. The principle of ensuring the stability of the system in relation to the external environment.
The stability and stability of the management system is determined by the quality of strategic management and operational regulation, leading to better adaptability of the system (organization) to changes in the external environment, including unfavorable ones.
8. The principle of mobility of the management process. Along with stability, management must be mobile, i.e. quickly and without any difficulties adapt to changes in the internal environment of the organization (company) and external environment– consumers of goods and services, market conditions, scientific and technical changes.
9. The principle of control automation. The higher the level of management automation, the higher the quality of the management process and the lower the costs. The condition for automation of management is the development of unification and standardization of elements of the management system, production, and specialization of functions performed.
10. The principle of unity of leadership. The essence of this principle can be expressed as follows: in one organization, be it an industrial enterprise, a trading company, a scientific institution, there must be one manager and one program for a set of operations pursuing the same goal. The famous French specialist in the field of management theory, Henri Fayol, noted that the point is not a lack or excess of principles, but that one must be able to operate with them.
Concept of the future. Methods of social forecasting.
Future 1. One of key functions philosophy is a predictive function, the meaning and purpose of which is to make reasonable predictions about the future.
2. Throughout history, the question of whether any reliable forecasting or vision of the future is possible in philosophy has been actively debated.
Modern philosophy The answer to this question is an affirmative: perhaps. In justifying the possibility of predicting the future, the following aspects are highlighted: ontological; epistemological; Logical; neurophysiological; Social.
Ontological The aspect lies in the fact that foresight is possible from the very essence of existence - its objective laws, cause-and-effect relationships. Based on dialectics, the mechanism of development remains unchanged before each qualitative leap, and therefore it is possible to “trace” the future.
Epistemological aspect is based on the fact that since the possibilities of knowledge are limitless (according to the domestic philosophical tradition), and forecasting is also a type of knowledge, then forecasting itself is possible.
Logical aspect- on the fact that the laws of logic always remain unchanged, both in the present and in the future. Neurophysiological aspect is based on the capabilities of consciousness and the brain to proactively reflect reality.
Social aspect is that humanity strives, based on own experience development, modeling the future.
3. In modern Western science, a special discipline stands out - futurology. Its creator is considered to be the German scientist Flechtheim (40s of the XX century), who proposed the term. World-famous modern scientists and philosophers who deal with the problems of predicting the future include G. Parsons, E. Hanke, I. Bestuzhev-Lada, G. Shakhnazarov and others.
4. A special type of forecasting is social forecasting, which deals with foreseeing processes occurring in society.
Among them are processes in the field of: industrial relations; science and technology; education; healthcare; literature, construction; space exploration; international relations. This direction is called prognostics and differs from futurology in being more specific (it studies social processes, their future, and not the future in general).
Social Forecasting Methods
Based on three ways to obtain information about the future. Firstly, this extrapolation(-logical and methodological procedure for disseminating (transferring) conclusions made regarding a part of objects or phenomena to the entire set (set) of these objects or phenomena, as well as to any other part of them) into the future of observed trends, patterns, developments in the past and are quite well known today. Secondly, this grade possible or desirable future state of a phenomenon. Thirdly, this modeling predicted phenomena. All three methods are distinguished conditionally, because they form an organic. unity: any extrapolation, logical. or statistical, is, in fact, a predictive assessment and a type of predictive model. Any forecast assessment is, first of all, an extrapolation in one or another model representation; any forecast model includes extrapolation and assessment. All forecasting methods are essentially different. combinations of elements of the above methods of obtaining information about the future. Several methods are general scientific, FOR EXAMPLE, forecasting by analogy. Predictive assessments of deductive or inductive, etc. Practically in the arsenal of M.S.P. all methods included sociology, research - study of documentary sources and literature, observation, polls population and experts, experiment staged and post-facto experiment, schematic modeling. and mathematical. Many methods are inter- or interscientific, used in a number of scientific fields. disciplines, e.g. regression or factor methods analysis, full-time and correspondence collective and individual surveys of experts, simple and formalized forecast scenarios, etc. Some methods are private scientific, i.e., they relate only to certain people. one scientific discipline - eg. population surveys in sociology, projective tests in psychology, etc. According to the accepted classification of forecasting methods (covering methods of scientific, technical and socio-economic forecasting, without taking into account the specifics of agro-, hydrometeorological and a number of other natural science forecasts), all methods according to the degree of formalization are divided into intuitive (expert) and formalized (factual).
When forecasting, qualitative and quantitative research methods are used. A forecasting method is a method of studying a forecasting object aimed at developing a forecast. A set of special rules, techniques and methods constitutes a forecasting methodology.
To the most common qualitative methods forecasting refers to the method of expert assessments.
The method of expert assessments is used primarily in long-term forecasts.
Forecasting is carried out on the basis of the judgment of an expert (group of experts) regarding the task at hand. These are informal methods. An expert is a qualified specialist on a specific problem who can make a reliable conclusion about the object of forecasting.
Essentially, a specialist’s opinion is the result of mental analysis and generalization of processes related to the past, present and future, based on one’s own experience, qualifications and intuition.
They are used if the object of forecasting and planning is complex, new or there is uncertainty in its development.
Expert assessments can be individual or collective. Methods of individual expert assessments include: *
analytical method. Allows you to carry out a logical analysis of any predicted situation and present this analysis in the form of an analytical note. Assumes independent work an expert in analyzing trends, assessing the state and development paths of the projected object; *
interview method. Allows direct contact between an expert and a specialist using a “question-answer” scheme, during which the forecaster, in accordance with a pre-developed program, poses questions to the expert regarding the prospects for the development of the forecasted object; *
script writing method. Based on determining the logic of development of a process or phenomenon over time with different conditions. The main purpose of the scenario is to determine the general goal of development of the predicted object, phenomenon and formulate evaluation criteria upper levels"goal tree". A scenario is a picture that displays a consistent detailed solution to a problem, identification of possible obstacles, detection of serious deficiencies, in order to resolve the issue of the possible termination of work begun or completed on the projected object; *
“goal tree” method. It is used in the analysis of systems, objects, processes in which several structural or hierarchical levels can be distinguished. The “goal tree” is built by sequentially identifying smaller and smaller components at descending levels.
Methods of collective expert assessments include: *
commission method (collective meeting). Consists in determining the consistency of expert opinions on promising directions development of the forecasting object, formulated earlier by individual specialists. This means that the development of a given object cannot be determined by other methods. A survey of experts is conducted with further processing of the survey materials. The final survey score is reported as either the average judgment, the arithmetic mean, or the weighted average of the scores. *
The Delphi method consists of organizing a systematic collection of expert assessments, their mathematical and statistical processing, and sequential adjustments by experts of their assessments based on the results of each processing cycle. Its features include the anonymity of experts, a multi-round procedure for surveying experts through questionnaires, providing experts with information, including the exchange of it between experts after each round of the survey while maintaining the anonymity of assessments, and justifying the answers of experts at the request of the organizers. The method is intended to obtain relatively reliable information in situations of acute deficiency. *
brainstorming method. Suitable for determining possible options development of the forecasting object and obtaining productive results in a short period of time by involving all experts in active creative process. The essence of the method is to mobilize the creative potential of experts during a brainstorming session and generate ideas with further destruction (destruction, criticism) of these ideas and the formulation of counter-ideas.
The most common quantitative forecasting methods include: *
extrapolation method. This is a method in which the predicted indicators are calculated as a continuation of the dynamic series for the future according to the identified pattern of development. In essence, extrapolation is the transfer of patterns and trends of the past to the future based on the interrelations of indicators of one series. The method allows you to find the level of a series beyond its limits, in the future. Extrapolation is effective for short-term forecasts if the time series data are clearly and consistently expressed.
To determine the forecast by extrapolation, it is necessary to determine the average annual growth over the past years (formula 1) and extrapolate to future periods (formula 2).
The average annual growth rate (coefficient) is calculated using the formula:
where is the average annual growth rate;
n is the number of years between the base and reporting years,
The value of the forecasted indicator in the reporting year,
The value of the forecasted indicator in the base year.
Extrapolation method:
If it is assumed that past and present development trends will continue into the future, then we talk about formal extrapolation. If actual development is linked to hypotheses about the dynamics of the development process, taking into account the physical and logical essence, then we talk about predictive extrapolation. Forecast extrapolation can be in the form of a trend, envelope curves, correlation and regression dependencies, can be based on factor analysis, etc. Extrapolation of a complex order can develop into modeling; *
trend extrapolation method. This type of extrapolation, such as a trend, is characterized by finding a smooth line that reflects patterns of development over time. A trend is a continuation of a trend. The patterns of the past are carried into the future. Applicable in short-term forecasting for each specific indicator (separately). The most applicable methods and the most inexpensive. Trend is usually used as the main component of a forecast time series, with other components, such as seasonal variations, superimposed on it.
Extrapolation based on trend includes: ?
collection of information on the empirical series of indicators for past periods; ?
choice optimal type a function that describes the specified series, taking into account its smoothing and alignment; ?
calculation of parameters of the selected extrapolation function; ?
calculation of a forecast for the future based on the selected function.
normative method (interpolation). The ways and terms of achieving possible states of the phenomenon, taken as the goal, are determined. It is about predicting the achievement of desired states of a phenomenon based on predetermined norms, ideals, incentives and goals. This forecast answers the question: in what ways can you achieve what you want? The normative method is more often used for program or target forecasts. Both the quantitative expression of the standard and a certain scale of capabilities of the evaluation function are used. In the case of using quantitative expression, for example, physiological and rational norms of consumption of individual food and non-food products, developed by specialists for various population groups, it is possible to determine the level of consumption of these goods for the years preceding the achievement of the specified norm. Such calculations are called interpolation. Interpolation is a method of calculating indicators missing in the dynamic series of a phenomenon based on an established relationship. Taking the actual value of the indicator and the value of its standards as the extreme members of the dynamic series, it is possible to determine the values of the values within this series. Therefore, interpolation is considered a normative method. The previously given formula (1), used in extrapolation, can be used in interpolation, where Y will no longer characterize the actual data, but the standard indicator; *
regression analysis methods. They study the dependence of a certain quantity on another or others, and this dependence is transferred to the future. Used for objects that have a complex and multifactor structure. Used in medium- and long-term forecasting. *
analogy method. Involves the transfer of knowledge about one subject (phenomenon) to another. Such a transfer is correct with a certain degree of probability, since the similarity between phenomena is rarely complete. Simulation and experiment necessarily use the method of analogy; *
mathematical modeling. Modeling is perhaps the most complex forecasting method. Means the description of an economic phenomenon through mathematical formulas, equations and inequalities. The mathematical apparatus must accurately reflect the forecast background, although it is quite difficult to fully reflect the entire depth and complexity of the forecasted object. The term "model" is derived from the Latin word modelus, which means "measure". It would be more correct to consider modeling not a method of forecasting, but a method of studying a similar phenomenon using a model.
CHECK QUESTIONS: 1.
What explains the uncertainty of the future? 2.
Sequence of forecast development. 3.
What does forecast lead time include? 4.
Name the forms of foresight.
Social Forecasting Methods
Stages of developing social forecasts
In social work
Forecasting and design
Social diagnostics
Disadaptation. Its causes and sources
Social adaptation, its types.
Adaptive essence of social work technologies
Typology of social work technologies
Technologization of social work
Technological revolution of the twentieth century and technologization of the social sphere. Strengthening the pragmatic principle in social life, the desire to minimize costs.
Types and methods of constructing social technologies. Stages technological process: goal setting, development of tactical means, organization, assessment. Boundaries of technologization.
Properties of social work technologies:
§ dynamism,
§ continuity,
§ cyclicality,
§ discreteness, etc.
Typology criteria:
§ by object,
§ according to the degree of its maturity,
§ scale,
§ sphere of social life,
§ by purpose
General, interdisciplinary and specific (private) technologies of social work.
Social work technologies with various groups population
Levels of adaptation. R. Merton on the forms of individual adaptation to social conditions life:
‣‣‣ conformism
‣‣‣ innovation
‣‣‣ ritualism
‣‣‣ retreatism
‣‣‣ riot
Integrative nature of social diagnosis. Social norm and pathology. Contradictory social norms.
Types of diagnostics.
Levels and methods of diagnosis, stages of its implementation. Collection of information about the client and his immediate environment. Methods of sociological, psychological, pedagogical and other types of diagnostics used in social work.
Social Forecasting
Social forecasting as a method of scientific knowledge and technology of social work.
Functions and principles forecasting in social work.
Typology of social forecasts. Formalized and intuitive methods of social forecasting.
Classification of forecasts according to their ultimate goals:
* search (research),
* regulatory (software.
Lead period social forecast:
* operational,
* short-term, medium- and long-term forecasts.
Predictive Retrospection
Predictive diagnosis
Prospection.
Forecast task and its main elements.
Pre-forecast orientation
Construction of a basic model and dynamic-statistical series
Construction of hypothetical models, their verification
Factual (formalized) methods: statistical, extrapolation, interpolation, analogies, etc.
Expert (intuitive) methods: individual ( expert assessment, psycho-intellectual idea generation, interviews, script writing, etc.) and group (expert commissions, Delphi, collective idea generation, etc.)
Stage of forecasting:
v pre-forecast orientation,
v modeling,
v post-forecast orientation.
Social design
Development engineering design at the beginning of the twentieth century. Project thinking in management activities. The concept of social project activities. Social engineering.
Design as an activity, which is usually understood as thinking about what should be. It is characterized by:
‣‣‣ ideal nature of action;
‣‣‣ focus on the appearance of something in the future
The essence of social design consists in constructing the desired states of the future. But this Not dream And Not adventure. The future can be constructed, the whole question is what kind of people will do it and why?
Project focus:
1) innovative - based on the life concept of “changing the world”;
2) conservative – its basis is life principleʼʼdefend traditionsʼʼʼʼ
3) anti-innovation – its main principle is “not to interfere”.
Availability of necessary resources as the basis of the project: The need for change. People's readiness for change. Availability of material and financial resources.
Approaches to creating projects in social work:
‣‣‣ object-oriented - aims to create new or reconstruction of an existing facility, performing an important socio-cultural function;
‣‣‣ problem-oriented - relies on an understanding of design in social work as a special technology developing alternative samples of solutions to current and future socially significant problems, taking into account data from social diagnostic studies, available resources and planned goals for the development of a regulated social situation;
‣‣‣ subject-oriented - takes into account the discrepancy between subjective worlds, value regulation and activity of behavior of subjects in the social environment. The source of the project idea is the value-normative system of the project creator.
Thomas's theorem: If people define certain situations as real, those situations are real in their consequences.
Philosophy of the subject-oriented approach.
§ A person is open to social changes; by nature he is a social experimenter.
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But the measure of openness varies by type of society and situation.
§ Human unique in its integrity, but in its individual properties it typical . There will always be a group of people who will support the project.
§ Division by their And strangers – natural way restructuring society, overcoming social differences and establishing social distances.
§ The art of social project activity lies in compliance with social requirements for it - create the possible.
Social project - This is a social innovation constructed by the initiator of the project, the purpose of which is to create, modernize or maintain material or spiritual value in a changed environment, which has spatio-temporal and resource boundaries and the impact of which on people is recognized as positive in its social significance.
Social innovation -type of management decision, the concept of which involves a purposeful change in a social phenomenon or process, and the implementation consists of the implementation of this plan.
Social forecasting methods - concept and types. Classification and features of the category "Methods of social forecasting" 2017, 2018.
