Data for 20 years. Demographic situation in Russia. We got out of the demographic hole
He headed the Russian state. No one officially noticed the date, but meanwhile this is a good reason to hold interim results of his reign. During this time, Russia managed to once again become the world's breadbasket, as in tsarist times, and even increase industrial production by 1.5 times. What else has changed?
During these holidays, an important date actually passed unnoticed - it was 18 years since Vladimir Putin headed the Russian state. No one officially noticed the date, but meanwhile this is a good reason to hold interim results of Putin’s reign.
In the last days of December, experts summed up the results, but limited themselves only to the past 17th year. And here one cannot but agree with the president’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, who highlighted, first of all, his economic successes - after all, Russia emerged from a two-year recession; according to the results of the first 10 months, GDP growth was 1.6 percent.
However, the 18th year will, first of all, be a year of federal elections. Therefore, it would be much more interesting to look at a deeper retrospective than just the past year. For example, consider what positive developments and changes have occurred in Russia over the past 17 years - starting in March 2000, when Vladimir Putin was first elected president.
However, as you know, in the status of acting president, Putin headed the country a little earlier - on December 31, 1999.
The economy has broken important records in 18 years
Yes, recent years in the economy have been quite difficult, given the sanctions confrontation between the West and Russia, as well as the financial crisis, many of the consequences of which we still feel. However, this crisis has been largely overcome, people have become accustomed to sanctions, and serious progress is visible in the long term.
It is worth highlighting two economic indicators that were especially painful for our country in the 90s - a huge public debt and inflation that is not inferior to it. Over the past 18 years, a colossal breakthrough has been made in this direction. Debt decreased during this time by as much as 22.7 times - from 69.1% of GDP in 2000 to 3.1% in 2016. Inflation was also defeated. If in 2000 it was 20.2%, then already in 2006, for the first time in the modern history of Russia, it fell below 10%, and as of December 4, 2017, it reached a record 2.5% in annual terms.
The unemployment rate has also decreased over 18 years. This figure decreased from 10.6% to 5.2% of the economically active population, reaching its historical minimum for our country. For clarity, it is worth noting that in the European Union (for which unemployment has generally been a sore subject in recent years), it is 7.4%, in the euro area - 8.8%, in France - 9.7%, in Austria - 9.4 %, in Italy - 11.1%, in Spain - 16.38%, in Montenegro - more than 20%, in Greece - 21%.
At the same time, Russia managed to increase its gold and foreign exchange reserves. During the reporting period, our country's international reserves increased more than 30 times - from 12 to 378 billion dollars. The general recovery of the economy also contributed to the growth of its investment attractiveness. Even against the backdrop of the difficulties of recent years caused by sanctions pressure, in general the volume of investments over 18 years has increased by more than 2.5 times.
If these indicators look abstract to some, then what could be more real than industrial growth? And it was significant in 2000-2017. Russian industry demonstrated an increase in production by 55.4%.
Agriculture did not lag behind, and for some reason many liberal economists continued to predict collapse almost every year. However, the grain harvest almost doubled - from 65.4 million tons in 2000 to 140 million tons in 2017. Moreover, last year’s result was absolutely breakthrough, since it broke a 40-year-old record (127.4 million tons in 1978). Russia is once again the world's largest wheat exporter and has regained its pre-World War I title as one of the leading suppliers of bread to world markets.
Livestock farming also showed significant progress. Pork production almost doubled (from 2.2 million tons in 2000 to 4.4 million tons in 2016), eggs 1.3 times (from 24.2 to 34.4 billion pieces), poultry meat 6 times (from 1.1 million tons to 6.2 million tons).
Successful military reform took place
As Dmitry Abzalov, president of the Center for Strategic Communications, told the newspaper VZGLYAD, during these 18 years, the successes of the economy, in particular the military-industrial complex, contributed to the modernization of the armed forces. In addition to increasing the military's pay and a general increase in army expenses, fundamental reforms were carried out, the army was equipped with the latest types of weapons and equipment. In particular, in 2017 alone, the level of re-equipment of the army was 62%. Thanks to all this, a radically new look of the Russian Armed Forces was formed, which the world community could see, for example, in Syria.
Another successful area has been the development of information technology, especially in recent years. The level of Russian programmers is confirmed by first places in international competitions. In particular, in 2016, Russians took all three prizes at the World Programming Olympiad.
The development of the IT segment became possible, firstly, thanks to fundamental science, a technical school, secondly, thanks to the active growth of the domestic market and the achievements of Russian companies in foreign markets Thirdly, thanks to the high development of the necessary infrastructure, for example, Internet access, in our country, Abzalov emphasized.
We got out of the demographic hole
Another important area of life in our country is demographic policy. And, perhaps, it turned out to be no less breakthrough than economics. Everyone remembers the demographic hole of the 1990s. How is the situation now?
Just four years ago, the country achieved positive natural population growth for the first time since 1991, which amounted to 25 thousand people. Between 2000 and 2016, the birth rate increased by one and a half times. If in 2000 it was 8.6 per 1000 people, then in 2016 it was 12.9, and from January to October last year it was 11.6. If in 2000 only 29% of Russian families had two children, then in 2016 - already 41%. The share of third and subsequent births increased from 11 to 19%.
The increase in the birth rate was facilitated by family support measures taken by the government all these years, such as, for example, the payment of maternity capital.
“According to our expert estimates, the measures that were taken in 2006, together with the measures taken in 2011-2012, collectively resulted in from 2 million to 2.5 million additional births. Without these measures, we most likely would not have had such results,” Sergei Rybalchenko, general director of the Institute of Scientific and Public Expertise, told Gazeta.ru.
It is difficult to single out the most effective demographic measure - they work as a “package,” says Alla Makarentseva, head of the RANEPA Laboratory for Demography and Migration Research.
“If we talk about recent years, then, rather, this is a reduction in the queue for kindergartens and the first steps towards making nursery groups accessible and, in general, establishing a balance between work and raising children - all services related to child care,” - she emphasized.
The reduction in infant mortality played a huge role in increasing the birth rate. A set of measures in the healthcare sector, including the opening of perinatal centers, made it possible to reduce its risk by 2.6 times. In 2000, the infant mortality rate was 15.3 per 1,000 births, and in 2017 it was 5.3. And this is a historical minimum for our country. By the way, in the USA in 2016 this figure was 5.8, in Europe - 6.64, in Ukraine - 8, in Georgia - 15.6.
Another important aspect of demographic policy was the increase in life expectancy, which, by the way, also remains an important indirect incentive for increasing the birth rate. Overall life expectancy in 2000–2016 increased by 6.6 years and reached 71.9 years. And in 2017, for the first time in the history of our country, it reached 72.6 years.
It is important to note that the mortality rate from circulatory diseases decreased by 1.37 times from 2007 to 2016 (from 846 per 100 thousand people in 2000 to 616 in 2016). During the same time, the mortality rate as a result of road accidents fell 1.8 times: from 27 to 15 per 100 thousand population.
Medicine has become more high-tech
Increasing natural growth and life expectancy, as well as reducing infant mortality, are impossible without qualitative changes in the medical field, and this is not only the opening of perinatal centers. State financing of healthcare from 2000 to 2017 in real terms increased almost 3 times, and in nominal terms - from 204.5 billion rubles in 2000 to almost three trillion in 2017.
Naturally, increased funding contributed to the improvement of the equipment of medical institutions. In 2011-2013, 389.7 thousand units of various medical equipment were supplied to them. As a result, in just three years, the equipment of medical institutions increased by 2.5 times. Accordingly, the development of high-tech medical care occurred. The number of patients who received such assistance increased 16 times in 2005-2017: from 60 thousand to more than 960 thousand patients.
In healthcare, the creation of high-tech medical centers remains an important factor, says Dmitry Abzalov. If previously you had to go to Moscow for high-tech medical care, recently corresponding centers have appeared in many federal districts, which has significantly improved the infrastructure, he emphasized.
Large-scale free medical examinations are being carried out, which also contributes to the improvement of the population’s health. The number of people who completed it increased by 3.9 times from 2008 to 2015: from 5.8 million to 22.5 million people.
In addition, the fleet of ambulance vehicles is being significantly updated (2,307 vehicles in 2016, another 1,446 in 2017). At the same time, the traditionally difficult situation with medical institutions in rural areas began to improve. Since 2000, more than 5 thousand medical units have been put into operation in villages, of which 369 in 2017.
No more queues at kindergarten
Over the years, queues for kindergartens have been almost completely eliminated. Since 2012, about 800 thousand places in kindergartens have been created. As a result, the enrollment of children in preschool educational institutions increased from 64.6% in 2014 to almost 100% in 2017.
Improvements have also been made to the quality of education. In particular, last year a record was set for the number of schoolchildren who received the maximum 300 points on the Unified State Exam, and the number of those who did not overcome the minimum threshold on the Unified State Exam, on the contrary, decreased by half. In addition, if in 2001 Russian elementary school students took 16th place in an international study of reading literacy, then in 2016 they already rose to first place.
Expenditures on science also increased. Funding for civil science from the federal budget increased almost 20 times (from 17.4 billion rubles in 2000 to almost 350 billion in 2017), and funding for basic research increased 14 times (from 8.2 to 117.5 billion rubles) . All this contributed to an increase in the number of young scientists (under the age of 39). Since 2000, their number has increased 1.5 times and today accounts for 43% of the total number of researchers.
In addition to education and science, attention was paid to culture. For example, many new museums have opened. From 2001 to 2016, the number of public and private museums in the country increased from 2,027 to 2,742, while museums began to receive many more visitors - from 476 to 857 visits per 1,000 inhabitants.
At the same time, there was also an increase in interest in art among children. The number of children studying in art schools increased by 234 thousand people over ten years, and in 2015 their number exceeded 1.5 million. The most important factor that ensured all these achievements in economic development, including the influx of investment, was political stability, says Dmitry Abzalov. Although changes in oil prices during these years also played a big role, he noted, the chosen economic course and targeted development of specific industries, for example, the military-industrial complex, the IT segment, or the agro-industrial complex, were also important, the expert concluded.
Expert of the Center, Kravchenko L.I.
Taking first place in the world in terms of territory, Russia is rapidly losing its position in the demographic field. If in 1991 the Russian Federation was in 6th place in terms of population, then in 2012 it was in 10th place, by 2050 Russia will take 14th place. A reduction in the population of such a vast territory creates threats, first of all, to the territorial integrity of the state. The situation is obvious: the country is experiencing a demographic crisis. But the question remains open: what factors and reasons is it due to and does it affect the entire population or is it selective?
This study is devoted to the analysis of this problem.
The demographic problem in Russia has been discussed for a long time. Since the mid-90s, the country has experienced a population decline. In 2010, the process of population decline was stopped. According to Rosstat, in 2012 the population of Russia increased for the first time and in the first half of 2013 amounted to 143.3 million people. (Fig.1).
Fig.1. Population of Russia 1990-2013, in million hours.
The increase in population, while natural decline continued, was ensured by the migration balance. In 2013, according to Rosstat, Russia for the first time overcame the natural population decline. However, the dynamics of changes in natural increase demonstrates that the birth rate exceeds the death rate only in a few federal districts of Russia. The question remains open: at whose expense did this “demographic miracle” happen? Does it have ethnic and religious roots or is it determined by material factors (economic well-being of the regions)?
Until 2009, the only federal district with a positive birth rate balance was the North Caucasus. In 2012, the number of such federal districts increased to four: North Caucasus, Ural, Siberian and Far Eastern. The increase in the Far Eastern Federal District is due to an increase in growth in the Sakha Republic (ethnic composition: Yakuts - 49%, Russians - 30%). In the Siberian Federal District, a 44% increase was ensured by a population increase in the republics of Buryatia, Tyva, Khakassia, Altai, and a 56% increase due to regions with a Russian population of 83-88%. In the Ural Federal District, the positive balance was achieved mainly due to the Khanty-Mansi and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrugs (the share of the Russian population is 63.5% and 59.7%, respectively). (Fig.2). IN In the first half of 2013, the dynamics continued.
Fig.2. Dynamics of natural population growth in the Federal Districts, in people. (according to Rosstat)
In the next two years, natural population growth is expected in the Volga and Southern Federal Districts. At the moment, in the Volga Federal District there is a positive balance - in five national republics (Tatarstan, Chuvashia, Mari El, Bashkortostan and Udmurtia), as well as in the Orenburg region (75% Russians) and the Perm Territory (83% Russians). In the Southern Federal District, there is a positive balance in Kalmykia and the Astrakhan region (61% Russians). The increase in the district will be achieved due to the excess of birth rates over deaths in the Krasnodar Territory (approximately 2013) and the Republic of Adygea (approximately 2014).
The most demographically disadvantaged Central Federal District will achieve positive dynamics no earlier than 2017. According to data for the first half of 2013, natural population decline has continued in all regions of the Central region, while Moscow is the leader in terms of positive balance of natural population movement.
Table 1. Forecast of natural population growth by federal districts
|
Cent- |
North |
North Caucasus- |
Volga- |
Ural |
Siberian |
Far Eastern |
||
|
Year achieved |
forecast - 2017 |
forecast - 2015 |
forecast - 2014 |
always an increase |
forecast - 2014 |
|||
|
Subjects that will provide positive |
Moscow, Moscow region |
Republic |
Kalmykia and Astra- |
6 res- |
Tatarstan, Mari El, Bashkor- |
Khanty- |
Republic of Altai, Buryatia, Tyva, Khakassia, Zabay- |
Sakha (Yakutia) |
The current state of natural population growth is characterized by a steady increase in the birth rate and a slower decrease in mortality. This is most likely explained by the transfer of increased birth rates a generation earlier (perestroika years) to the USSR.
The birth rate increase coefficient, showing how many times the birth rate has increased by district, indicates accelerated growth in the North Caucasus (1.7 times), Ural and Central federal districts. (Fig.3).
Fig.3. Ratio of the 2012 birth and death rate to the 2000 birth and death rate.
In terms of mortality growth rates, a slowdown is observed in all districts except the North Caucasus.
In absolute terms, the birth rate in the North Caucasus Federal District is significantly lower than the birth rate in other districts. However, in terms of relative indicators (birth rate and death rate per 1000 people), the North Caucasus region demonstrates the best indicators - high birth rate and low death rate. On average, the birth rate in this district is 4.1 units higher than the Russian average birth rate. , in terms of mortality is 5 units lower. The most disadvantaged region in terms of demography is the Central District - in terms of birth rates it is 1.5 times and in terms of mortality rates it is 1.7 times worse than those of the North Caucasus Federal District. (Fig.4).
Fig.4. Birth and death rates per 1000 people by federal districts
The ratio of fertility to mortality in this district exceeded 2, while in the Ural, Siberian and Far Eastern regions only in recent years it was possible to achieve only 1. And although each federal district over time demonstrates an increase in the gap between fertility and mortality, the highest rate is in the North. Caucasus region. (Fig.5).
Fig.5. Birth-to-death ratio by county
In recent years, the top ten leaders in natural population growth have not changed. So, the growth in the Republic of Dagestan is ahead of this indicator in all federal districts with positive dynamics (except for the North Caucasus), and the growth in the Tyumen region and the Chechen Republic in 2012 is ahead of the positive balance in the Siberian and Far Eastern federal districts.
The greatest population decline was observed in a number of regions of the Central Federal District. The absolute leader in this indicator is the Moscow region, while Moscow is among the top ten leaders in natural growth. St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region have the same dynamics.
Table 2. Leaders in population growth in 2012
Table 3. Leaders in population decline in 2012
Traditionally, population decline is observed in regions with a predominantly Russian population. This is the most important effect. Among the demographic leaders are the national republics with a low share of the Russian population, as well as the Tyumen region and Moscow, where the growth was achieved due to immigration and the high standard of living of citizens.
Based on the hypothesis that natural decline directly depends on the share of the Russian population, we will consider the dynamics of natural population movement in 20 regions with a share of the Russian population above 90% and 9 regions with a share from 1 to 31%.
Regions with the highest percentage of Russian people in their ethnic composition demonstrate decreasing natural population decline, but the prospect of achieving an excess of birth rates over deaths in the coming years is unattainable. (Fig.6).
Fig.6. Balance of natural increase in 20 constituent entities of the Russian Federation with the share of the Russian population over 90%, in people.
At the same time, in 9 regions with a share of the Russian population of 0.7% up to 31%, the birth rate significantly exceeds the death rate, with the leaders being the Islamic republics of the North Caucasus. (Fig.7).
Fig.7.Balance of natural increase in 9 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, people.
In 2020, 2025 and 2030, the so-called “baby boom” will affect exclusively national republics. In the Chechen Republic, Ingushetia, Tyva, Dagestan, the Altai Republic, Yakutia and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, a demographic explosion will be observed in every year.
Table 4. Regions with the highest expected birth rates
|
Chechen Republic |
Chechen Republic |
Chechen Republic |
|
Republic of Ingushetia |
Republic of Ingushetia |
Republic of Ingushetia |
|
Republic of Tyva |
Republic of Tyva |
Republic of Tyva |
|
Republic of Dagestan |
Republic of Dagestan |
Republic of Dagestan |
|
Altai Republic |
Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) |
Altai Republic |
|
Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) |
Altai Republic |
Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) |
|
Nenets Autonomous Okrug |
Nenets Autonomous Okrug |
|
|
Nenets Autonomous Okrug |
Republic of Buryatia |
|
|
Kabardino-Balkarian Republic |
Republic of North Ossetia-Alania |
Chukotka Autonomous Okrug |
|
Republic of Kalmykia |
Republic of Kalmykia |
Karachay-Cherkess Republic |
The worst birth rates in these years will be demonstrated by regions with a Russian population. In 2030, another Orthodox nation, the Mordovians, will also be far from the baby boom. The ten regions with the lowest birth rates in 2020-2030 mainly include the regions of the Central Federal District.
Table 5. Regions with the lowest expected birth rates
|
Moscow |
Moscow |
St. Petersburg |
|
St. Petersburg |
St. Petersburg |
Moscow |
|
Moscow region |
Leningrad region |
Leningrad region |
|
Tula region |
Moscow region |
Tula region |
|
Murmansk region |
Tula region |
Smolensk region |
|
Leningrad region |
Smolensk region |
Voronezh region |
|
Yaroslavl region |
Yaroslavl region |
Moscow region |
|
Ivanovo region |
Murmansk region |
Ryazan region |
|
Kamchatka region |
Vladimir region |
Republic of Mordovia |
|
Magadan region |
Ivanovo region |
Tambov region |
Thus, the demographic crisis is mediated by ethnic selectivity. The decline of the Russian population continues and has already led to its reduction by more than 8 million people since 1989. Since 2002, the number of ethnic groups professing Islam has increased. The number of Uzbeks increased 2 times, 1.6 times - Tajiks, which is explained by migration flows. The size of the Russian Islamic population has increased, with high growth rates demonstrated by the peoples living in the territory of the North Caucasus Federal District. Among the Orthodox peoples, the number of Armenians and Ossetians has increased. There has been a reduction in such Orthodox ethnic groups , like Russians, Udmurts, Mordovians, Chuvash, Mari. Since 2009, the population of Udmurtia began to grow due to natural growth, in the republics of Mari El and Chuvashia - since 2012, the decline in Mordovia has continued; the Russian population continues to decline due to natural population decline.
Table 6. Ethnic composition of Russia according to census data, in million people
|
1989 |
2002 |
2010 |
|
|
Whole population |
147,02 |
145,16 |
142,8565 |
|
Russians |
119,87 |
115,87 |
111,0169 |
|
Tatars |
5,52 |
5,56 |
5,310649 |
|
Ukrainians |
4,36 |
2,94 |
1,927988 |
|
Bashkirs |
1,35 |
1,67 |
1,584554 |
|
Chuvash |
1,77 |
1,64 |
1,435872 |
|
Chechens |
1,36 |
1,43136 |
|
|
Armenians |
0,53 |
1,13 |
1,182388 |
Based on the 2010 census data on the share of the Russian population in the population of the subjects, we can talk about a decrease in the Russian population in 2012 by 88,000 people, while the population of other nationalities increased by 108,000 people.
The rapid decline in the share of the Russian population in the national republics creates threats to the national security of the country: the connecting role of the Russian people is lost, regions appear that do not identify themselves with Russia, and there is a severance of ties between peoples in the spatial field of Russian civilization. The demographic situation in the region is becoming an indicator of separatist sentiments. The most unstable in this regard are regions such as Dagestan, Ingushetia, Chechnya, with the share of titular peoples exceeding 90%, as well as the Republic of Tyva. These republics also have the lowest proportion of people speaking Russian. Potential sources of tension may be those regions in which the share of titular peoples exceeds 50% and due to natural growth this share increases.
Table 7. Regions with the greatest potential threat of nationalist strife with the Russian people and separatism
|
Federal subject |
Share of the titular people |
Share of Russians |
Proportion of people who speak Russian |
|
Republic of Dagestan |
|||
|
Republic of Ingushetia |
|||
|
Chechen Republic |
|||
|
Republic of Tyva |
|||
|
Republic of Kabardino-Balkaria |
|||
|
Chuvash Republic |
|||
|
Republic of North Ossetia |
|||
|
Republic of Kalmykia |
|||
|
Republic of Tatarstan |
|||
|
Republic of Karachay-Cherkess |
Let us introduce for further analysis the concept of the “demographic stability” coefficient, allowing for cluster analysis.
du 
, Where
N(t ) is the number of people for the corresponding year (census years are selected), R/S is the ratio of the crude birth rate to the crude mortality rate. The introduced coefficient indicates population growth due to current natural increase and the demographic result of prolonged previous growth.
The threshold value in the case of a harmonious combination of positive signs of demographic stability (previous growth and current growth) is 2. If the coefficient is less than two, then the conclusion follows that something is wrong. Either earlier or at the current moment. This is where the possibility of semi-quantitative assessment of “sustainability” arises. The calculation takes into account those peoples who do not have statehood outside of Russia (to eliminate errors associated with migration flows). (Fig.8).
Fig.8. Coefficients of demographic stability of the peoples of Russia
This figure shows that there is also a religious characteristic “responsible” for demographic success. The demographic stability coefficient has a pronounced confessional character: for peoples professing Islam it is equal to 3.85; for Buddhists and shamanists – 2.86, for Orthodox peoples – 1.83. The only Orthodox people with a coefficient above 2 are the Ossetians. The peoples of the Islamic area, Buddhist and other beliefs are demographically reviving more actively. For some reason, Orthodoxy is still associated with the worst indicators of demographic development. Probably, the ideological mission of Orthodoxy has not yet become an effective factor influencing the reproductive tradition. The worst indicators are among the Mordovians and Russians, who have not yet reached the level of self-reproduction of the population.
Thus, the problem of the demographic crisis in Russia is mediated not only by ethnicity, but also by a mental factor, in particular, the role and significance of the ideological function of religion. The problem of the revival of Orthodoxy most acutely affects the Russian people. Therefore, indeed, we can talk about an ethno- and confessionally selective demographic crisis.
In the work “State policy of leading Russia out of the demographic crisis” a four-factor model is presented that explains the demographic situation in the country. It includes the material factor, the ideological and spiritual state of society, the civilizational identity of the Russian state and the role of state policy in managing demographic processes.
Typically, the overly exaggerated importance of the material factor actually only to some extent influences the results of the natural movement of the population. The emphasis of government demographic policy on maternal capital does not particularly affect demography and does not explain the observed positive phenomena in the current increase in birth rates. The psychological state of the population is more important. Thus, the stress of the 1998 default led to an increase in population loss in 1999, and the 2009 crisis slowed down the process of reducing population loss.
Improvement in fertility rates depends on the number of people entering childbearing age. The correlation between those born and those who entered childbearing age is greatest when the childbearing age is 30 years, as well as 25 and 29 (the birth rate of one year was compared with the birth rate of the year equal to the difference between the year being compared and the childbearing age). This correlation coincides with actual data on the distribution of births by maternal age. (Fig.9).
It follows that the current improvement in fertility rates in Russia is associated with the high growth in fertility in the 80s. This was a short-lived psychological effect of perestroika. In the future, the birth rate should slow down, since the new generation of people of childbearing age are children of the 90s, when there was a sharp drop in the birth rate. If we take 25 years as the average childbearing age, then starting from 2013 the growth rate will slow down, but if the childbearing age is 30 years, then over the next five years we can still expect an increase in the birth rate for some time, but from 2017 it will begin to decline steadily. (Fig. 10).
The material factor explains nothing at all in terms of successful natural movement in national regions where the standard of living is low. Figure 11 shows the slowdown in the decline in attrition in 2010 as a consequence of the 2009 crisis for the subjects with the largest share of the Russian population. (Fig. 11).
Thus, The demographic problem is only to a small extent determined by the material factor; the ideological and spiritual state of society has a significant influence.
Manifestations of the decadent ideological and spiritual state of the Russian and other Orthodox peoples are the following:
Value crisis;
Late marriage: decrease in the number of people getting married at the age of 18-24 and height in the range of 25-34 years (Fig. 12);
Divorces. The number of divorces per 1000 people in regions with the greatest population decline is 3.9-4.8, in the republics of the North Caucasus 0.9-3;
Sexualization of youth;
Extramarital reproduction;
Nuclearization of the family;
The problem of lonely people;
Abortion. Since 2000, there has been a downward trend in the number of abortions, which is largely due to the practice of widespread use of contraception. But Russia still has the highest abortion rate in Europe. In absolute terms, the number of abortions in 2012 was 1.06 million (compared to 2.13 million in 2000);
Alcoholism, drug addiction, substance abuse;
Suicide;
Gender gap and specifics of family relationships;
Confessional basis of demographic variability.
The government refuses to notice the fact that the low birth rate and high death rate in our country are associated primarily with the spiritual state of society. So, in Decree of the President of the Russian Federation dated October 9, 2007 N 1351 “On approval of the Concept of demographic policy of the Russian Federation for the period until 2025” it is written, that “the current demographic situation in the Russian Federation is largely determined by the socio-economic processes that took place in the 20th century.”
The main reasons for the low birth rates are named: “low monetary income of many families, lack of normal living conditions, modern family structure (orientation towards small children, an increase in the number of single-parent families), heavy physical labor of a significant part of working women (about 15 percent), working conditions that do not meet sanitary and hygienic standards standards, low level of reproductive health, high number of pregnancy terminations (abortions).” However, if you look at the statistics, you can see that it is in the national republics, especially the North Caucasus Federal District, that the population with the lowest incomes lives, whose birth rate is not affected by either the income level or the 2009 crisis.
A new problem aggravating the demographic crisis in the country is the immigration challenge to national identity. Currently, stabilization of the population in Russia has been achieved due to the migration balance (in 2012, the number of remaining migrants was 294,930 people).
The first years after the collapse of the USSR were characterized by two streams of migration: the Russian population from the former Soviet republics to Russia and the Russian population from Russia to European countries, the USA and Israel. At the first stage, there was an influx and outflow of highly qualified personnel (Fig. 13).
There was a noticeable decrease in the outflow of the population by the end of the 1990s. In the 2000s, the outflow of qualified labor decreased, but there was an increase in labor immigrants from a number of CIS republics. The coincidence of the dynamics of migration inflows from the CIS republics (Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Central Asian republics) indicates their labor quality. The exception is migrants from Kazakhstan, who, most likely, are the Russian population or assimilated Kazakhs who moved to Russia not for work, but for permanent residence. (Fig. 14).
In 2012, 91% of the total migration growth occurred in the CIS countries, of which 50% - these are representatives of the republics professing Islam (Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan), together with Kazakhstan - 63.5%. The influx of low-skilled labor on the one hand, and the increase in representatives of other religious faiths on the other hand, raises the question of the immigration challenge to national identity.
In the Concept of Demographic Policy of the Russian Federation for the period until 2025, one of the tasks in the field of demographic policy is “attracting migrants in accordance with the needs of demographic and socio-economic development, taking into account the need for their social adaptation and integration.” This means that the current migration situation in the country is a consequence of the implementation of a specific task that clearly does not correspond to the national security of the country.
The concept further states that measures in the field of migration policy will be: promoting the voluntary resettlement of compatriots living abroad; attracting qualified foreign specialists, attracting young people from foreign countries (primarily from member states of the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Republic of Latvia, the Republic of Lithuania and the Republic of Estonia) for training and internships in the Russian Federation with the possible provision of advantages in obtaining Russian citizenship upon graduation, creating conditions for the integration of immigrants into Russian society and the development of tolerance in relations between the local population and immigrants from other countries in order to prevent ethno-confessional conflicts. It was not possible to attract qualified foreign specialists; a small number of compatriots returned from abroad, but instead of the declared attraction of qualified labor, labor migrants headed to the country, who were called upon to solve the demographic problem.
As a result, in solving the demographic problem, the instrument of migration policy was used, which in turn only led to visible improvements in the demographic situation and created more serious problems associated with the immigration challenge to Russian identity and the integration of a new ethnic community into the multinational Russian people.
Solving the problems of demographic policy through attracting migrants and increasing the standard of living of the population is not effective, since it completely ignores the fact that the modern demographic situation is caused by a spiritual crisis, especially of the Russian people. The crisis, which is already obvious, is of an ethno-selective nature, but this fact is hushed up or not noticed, in any case, there is no adequate state political reaction to it.
Table 8. Peoples of Russia. Ranking by population (largest to smallest)
Note:
* Data on fertility, mortality and natural increase are estimated or missing.
** Peoples of the Republic of Dagestan
Color designation (peoples column) based on religious characteristics.
Table 8 presents data on the demographic state of the peoples of Russia with a population of more than 100,000 people in 2010. Based on these data, the following conclusions can be drawn.
In general, such peoples as Chechens, Armenians, Avars, Ossetians, Dargins, Buryats, Yakuts, Kumyks, Ingush, Lezgins, Tuvans, Karachais, Kalmyks, Laks, Cossacks, Tabasarans, Uzbeks, Tajiks do not need additional measures to stimulate the birth rate , Balkars. Their numbers and share in the country's population have increased, the birth rate is above the national average, the mortality rate is below the national average, and the number of births exceeds the number of deaths. These peoples have retained their spiritual identity, have not accepted the destructive values of consumer society, and demonstrate high potential for further demographic growth.
An effective state policy to stimulate the birth rate is carried out in relation to the Tatars, Bashkirs, Chuvash, Udmurts, Kabardians and Komi. Although their numbers and share in the country's population have decreased, the peoples have been able to achieve natural growth; the potential for their further demographic recovery is high birth rates and low deaths. These peoples demonstrate cohesion and national self-identification, which is largely due to the presence of their own state formation within Russia. They also retained traditional moral and spiritual values to a greater extent.
It is necessary to take additional measures to stimulate the birth rate for Russians, Mordovians and Adygeis. An analysis of the situation of the Russian people speaks of a selective policy of reducing its numbers: this is the only people in Russia that does not have its own statehood - it is Russian statehood, the birth rate remains below the Russian average, mortality rates exceed the average, the size and proportion of the population continues to decline steadily. The borrowed values of the consumer society, which are corrupting the spiritual foundation of the Russian people, the lack of cohesion, a unifying national idea and a sense of pride in one’s country, lead to the loss of original spiritual guidelines, which finds its physical expression in the natural decline of the Russian population and the reduction in its numbers.
But it is the Russian people who are the bond of all Russian peoples, Orthodoxy is the spiritual basis that can unite different faiths on the principle of peaceful coexistence and harmonious development. Awareness of the described threat and adequate government policy are required.World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision // United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2013
The peoples whose population as of 2002 exceeded 100,000 people and who did not have statehood outside the Russian Federation are listed.
State policy of bringing Russia out of the demographic crisis / Monograph. V.I. Yakunin, S.S. Sulakshin, V.E. Bagdasaryan and others. Generally edited by S.S. Sulakshina. 2nd ed. - M.: ZAO ≪Publishing House ≪Economy≫, Scientific Expert, 2007. - 888 p.
MOSCOW, February 8 – RIA Novosti. The post-Soviet era is considered to be a time of deep crisis in domestic science, however, both in the 1990s and later, Russian scientists managed to obtain world-class scientific results.
In honor of Russian Science Day, the RIA Novosti agency conducted a large-scale survey of experts and compiled a list of the most important and most striking discoveries made by Russian scientists over the past 20 years. This list does not pretend to be complete and objective; it does not include many discoveries, but it gives an idea of the scale of what has been done in post-Soviet science.
Synthesis of superheavy elements will help discover new elements - scientistsExperiments on the synthesis of superheavy elements open up new “unexplored lands” for humanity and, ultimately, can lead to the production of long-lived superheavy elements, academician Yuri Oganesyan, scientific director of the Flerov Laboratory of Nuclear Reactions of the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, told RIA Novosti.Super heavy elements
It was in the post-Soviet era that Russian scientists took the lead in the race for superheavy elements of the periodic table. From 2000 to 2010, physicists from the Flerov Laboratory at the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research in Dubna, Moscow Region, synthesized for the first time the six heaviest elements, with atomic numbers 113 to 118.
Two of them are already officially recognized by the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry (IUPAC) and. The application for the discovery of elements 113, 115, 117 is currently being considered by IUPAC.
“It is possible that one of the new elements will be given the name “Moscovium,” Andrei Popeko, deputy director of Flerov’s laboratory, told RIA Novosti.
Exawatt lasers
Russia has created a technology that makes it possible to obtain the most powerful light radiation on Earth. In 2006, the PEARL (PEtawatt pARametric Laser) installation was built at the Nizhny Novgorod Institute of Applied Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, based on the technology of parametric amplification of light in nonlinear optical crystals. This installation produced a pulse with a power of 0.56 petawatts, which is hundreds of times greater than the power of all power plants on Earth.
Now the IPF plans to increase the power of PEARL to 10 petawatts. In addition, it is planned, which involves the creation of a laser with a power of up to 200 petawatts, and in the future - up to 1 exawatt.
Such laser systems will make it possible to study extreme physical processes. In addition, they can be used to initiate thermonuclear reactions in targets, and on their basis it is possible to create laser neutron sources with unique properties.
Super powerful magnetic fields
Physicists from the Russian nuclear center in Sarov, under the leadership of Alexander Pavlovsky, in the early 1990s developed a method for producing record-breaking powerful magnetic fields.
Using explosive magnetic-cumulative generators, where the blast wave “compressed” the magnetic field, they managed to obtain a field value of 28 megagauss. This value is an absolute record for an artificially produced magnetic field; it is hundreds of millions of times higher than the strength of the Earth’s magnetic field.
Using such magnetic fields, it is possible to study the behavior of matter under extreme conditions, in particular, the behavior of superconductors.
Oil and gas will not run out
The press and environmentalists regularly remind us that oil and gas reserves will soon - in 70-100 years - come to an end, this could lead to the collapse of modern civilization. However, scientists from the Russian Gubkin University of Oil and Gas claim that this is not so.
Through experiments and theoretical calculations, they proved that oil and gas can be formed not as a result of the decomposition of organic substances, as the generally accepted theory says, but in an abiogenic (non-biological) way. They found that in the upper mantle of the Earth, at depths of 100-150 kilometers, there are conditions for the synthesis of complex hydrocarbon systems.
“This fact allows us to talk about natural gas (at least) as a renewable and inexhaustible source of energy,” Professor Vladimir Kucherov from Gubkin University told RIA Novosti.
Lake Vostok
Russian scientists may have made the last major geographical discovery on Earth - the discovery of the subglacial Lake Vostok in Antarctica. In 1996, together with British colleagues, they discovered it using seismic sounding and radar observations.
Drilling a well at Vostok station allowed Russian scientists to obtain unique data on the climate on Earth over the past half a million years. They were able to determine how the temperature and CO2 concentration changed in the distant past.
In 2012, a Russian polar explorer managed for the first time to penetrate this relict lake, which had been isolated from the outside world for about a million years. Studying water samples from it may lead to and allow us to draw conclusions about the possibility of the existence of life beyond the Earth - for example, on Jupiter's moon Europa.
Mammoths - contemporaries of the ancient Greeks
Mammoths were contemporaries of the Cretan civilization and became extinct in historical times, and not in the Stone Age, as previously thought.
In 1993, Sergei Vartanyan and his colleagues discovered the remains of dwarf mammoths, whose height did not exceed 1.8 meters, on Wrangel Island, which, apparently, was the last refuge of this species.
Radiocarbon dating, carried out with the participation of specialists from the Faculty of Geography of St. Petersburg University, showed that mammoths lived on this island until 2000 BC. Until then, it was believed that the last mammoths lived on Taimyr 10 thousand years ago, but new data showed that mammoths existed during the Minoan culture in Crete, the construction of Stonehenge and the 11th dynasty of Egyptian pharaohs.
Third kind of people
The work of Siberian archaeologists under the leadership of Academician Anatoly Derevyanko made it possible to discover a new, third species of human beings.
Until now, scientists knew about two higher species of ancient people - Cro-Magnons and Neanderthals. However, in 2010, a study of DNA from the bones showed that 40 thousand years ago, a third species, called Denisovans, lived with them in Eurasia.
Methane and water on Mars
Although Russia has failed to conduct successful independent interplanetary missions in the post-Soviet period, Russian scientific instruments on American and European probes and ground-based observations have yielded unique data about other planets.
In particular, in 1999, Vladimir Krasnopolsky from MIPT and his colleagues, using an infrared spectrometer on the Hawaiian CFHT telescope, first detected absorption lines of methane on Mars. This discovery was a sensation, since on Earth the main source of methane in the atmosphere is living beings. These data were then confirmed by measurements from the European Mars Express probe. Although the Curiosity rover has not yet confirmed the presence of methane in the Martian atmosphere in these searches.
The Russian HEND instrument on board the Mars-Odyssey spacecraft, created under the leadership of Igor Mitrofanov from the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, for the first time showed that there are huge reserves of subsurface water ice at the poles of Mars and even in mid-latitudes.
© State Astronomical Institute named after. PC. Sternberg Moscow State University M.V. Lomonosova/ Zhanna Rodionova
10 February 2014, 14:29 Another pyramid discovered in Egypt and other scientific discoveries of the weekEvery Monday, the site's editors select the most unexpected scientific news from the past week. In this issue: why children forget what happened to them before the age of 7, who built the pyramid discovered in Egypt, how fertility depends on the level of education of women and much more.He began his work by comparing mythological motifs among the aborigines of Siberia and America, and then included in his research data on the cultures of almost all peoples of the world, which made it possible to paint an impressive picture of the primary settlement of people around the globe.
He proved that there are stable coincidences of certain mythological motifs in certain regions, which correlate with the ancient movements of primitive tribes, which is confirmed by archaeological and genetic data.
“Thus, for the first time in the history of science, we have a way to relatively accurately estimate the time of existence of the components of an oral tradition, which solves a number of central problems of folklore or, at least, gives researchers a guideline for subsequent research,” the professor told RIA Novosti Sergei Neklyudov from Russian State University for the Humanities.
Millennium Challenge
Russian mathematician Grigory Perelman proved the Poincaré conjecture in 2002, one of the seven “Millennium Problems” on the Clay Mathematics Institute's list. The hypothesis itself was formulated back in 1904, and its essence boils down to the fact that a three-dimensional object without through holes is topologically equivalent to a sphere.
Perelman was able to prove this hypothesis, but he received unprecedented popularity in the media when he received $1 million from the Clay Institute for this proof.
1 In the field of physics, a synthesis of the six heaviest elements of the periodic table was performed. Scientists from the laboratory named after. Flerov. It is located at the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research in Dubna near Moscow. These new substances have received official recognition from the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry.
2 Creation of technologies for obtaining light radiation of the highest power. This power is based on the parametric amplification of light that occurs in nonlinear optical crystals. This installation was built at the Institute of Applied Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences in Nizhny Novgorod.
It produces a powerful impulse that is greater in power than all the power plants on the planet.
The creation of high-power laser systems makes it possible to study extreme physical processes. It has also become possible to obtain laser neutron sources with unique properties.
3 Physicists at the Russian nuclear center in the city of Sarov managed to obtain powerful magnetic fields. The magnetic field obtained as a result of a scientific experiment is millions of times greater than the strength of the earth's magnetic field. These magnetic fields make it possible to study the behavior of superconductors and other substances under extreme conditions.
4 Scientists from the University. Gubkin found evidence of the non-biological origin of oil and gas. These minerals may also arise from complex processes occurring in the Earth's upper mantle.
thus, oil and gas will never run out, as was previously believed.
5 An equally major geographical discovery on Earth was the discovery by Russian scientists of a lake under ice in Antarctica, which was named “Vostok”. The discovery was made thanks to radar observations and seismic sounding. As a result of drilling a well at Vostok station, scientists obtained data about what the climate on Earth was like in the distant past. It also became possible to draw conclusions about changes in temperature and CO2 concentration. This lake was isolated from the rest of the world for about 1 million years. Scientists suggest that this discovery will help to understand on which planet in the Universe life can exist.
Lake "Vostok"
6 The remains of dwarf mammoths were discovered by Russian scientists on. It was previously believed that mammoths became extinct in historical times. Using radiocarbon dating, it was discovered that the last mammoths lived on this island around 2000 BC.
7 Siberian archaeologists have discovered a third species of human beings, which are called "Denisovans". Previously, only two types of ancient people were known to science: Neanderthals and Cro-Magnons. The bones of new people were found in Denisova Cave, which was discovered in Altai. This people lived in Eurasia 40 thousand years ago.
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8 Information about water on Mars. According to ground-based observations and observations obtained from scientific instruments on American and European probes, assumptions about the presence of water ice on Mars were confirmed. They were discovered by the Russian HEND device. It was created at the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Ice was found in mid-latitudes and near the poles of Mars. Also on this planet, our scientists discovered methane absorption lines. The infrared spectrometer on the Hawaiian CFHT telescope was used for research. Methane on earth is released as a result of the activity of living beings. Measurements from the European Mars Express probe confirmed these sensational data.
Photo report: Russian HEND device on board the American spacecraft “2001 Mars Odyssey” 9 New hypotheses about human migration on Earth. Based on the results of studying the folklore and myths of the peoples of Siberia and America, Russian anthropologists have proven the possibility of determining the directions of movement of primitive tribes. These data are confirmed by archaeological excavations and the science of genetics.
10 For proving one of the seven millennium challenges ( "Poincaré conjecture") In 2002, the mathematician from Russia G. Perelman was awarded a prize of 2 million rubles. But he refused it, which attracted the attention of all the media in the world. The mathematician explained his decision by saying that his successes were no greater than other famous scientists in the world, who also came very close to this result. The mathematician also refused a $1 million prize from the Clay American Mathematical Institute and the Henri Poincaré Institute in Paris.
Grigory Perelman 11 The study of the Chelyabinsk meteorite, measuring 20 meters in size, also became an important event in Russian science. Thanks to analyzes carried out at the Vernadsky Institute of Geochemistry and Analytical Chemistry of the Russian Academy of Sciences, it was assigned to the class of ordinary chondrites.
The age of the asteroid, according to experts, was 4.56 billion years, that is, the same age as the entire solar system is now.
While moving to the earth, the asteroid flew at a short distance from the sun. Scientists made this conclusion based on the presence of traces of melting and crystallization processes that were found on meteorite fragments.
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More achievements
The Russian Academy of Sciences has demonstrated many achievements in various scientific fields over the past 20 years. For example, a new method for studying quantum integrable models has been developed. Hydrothermodynamics-based models have also been built to analyze global environmental changes. The creation of the multiprocessor computing system MVS-1000/M is of great importance for world science.
It has a performance of 1 trillion operations per second and is the most powerful supercomputer in Russia.
The Institute for Nuclear Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences provided the results of many years of measurements of the neutrino flux from the Sun. For this purpose, the gallium-germanium neutrino telescope of the Baksan Observatory was used. Thanks to these results, it became possible to reconsider the role of neutrinos in the evolution of the Universe and the structure of elementary particles. The successful launch of the CORONAS-F spacecraft will allow us to better study processes on the Sun and their impact on our planet.
CORONAS F At the Physico-Technical Institute named after. A.F. Ioffe developed a new laser design and laser diodes that can operate in continuous mode even at room temperature. The use of heterostructure technology with extreme size quantization has made Russia a leader in this field. Academician Zh. I. Alferov received the Nobel Prize in Physics for his research into semiconductor heterostructures.
Zhores Ivanovich Alferov The concept of a new generation of wind tunnels was developed at the Institutes of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics and Hydrodynamics of the SB RAS. This made it possible to create complex gas-dynamic processes in the hypersonic speed range. The Institute of Organic Chemistry has created a metal oxide system with a high content of lattice oxygen. When reacting with methane, it became possible to obtain gas with a selectivity of 95%.
Science crisis
At the same time, many scientists believe that Russian science is in a state of crisis. For example, the Vice-President of the Russian Academy of Sciences S. Aldoshin at the Ural Scientific Forum, which was held in Yekaterinburg, expressed his opinion about the destruction of industrial science in the country. In Soviet times, it connected the scientific community and industrial enterprises. In the 90s, she simply disappeared, according to Aldoshin. Industry financing has deteriorated significantly. The investment of commercial enterprises in science has become unprofitable, since specific scientific solutions from scientists have ceased to be forthcoming. Thus, industrial science remained on state support, which is not distinguished by large amounts of financial injections. This is reflected in the number of publications and discoveries of Russian scientists. Many scientists and analysts believe that the disappearance of high-tech industry led to the real collapse of Russian science. It was she who was the main customer of scientific developments.
The main reason for the decline was poor funding for science, which is still several times less compared to the USA and China. In the 90s, the number of scientific and design organizations and design bureaus decreased. During these years, the emigration of researchers and university graduates from the country sharply increased, which caused enormous damage to the country's budget. During these years, many developed scientific technologies were lost and were never introduced into production.
Russia has lost its scientific position in almost all sectors. Not only fundamental science suffered, but also its practical branches. Among them, the decline in nuclear energy can be especially noted. Compared to world scientific research, Russia accounts for only 2.6%.
According to the technology index, Russia is in last place in the world. The country has gone back in terms of high technology development by about 15 years. In biotechnology and other areas for at least 20 years. To correct this situation in science, it is necessary to attract about 500 thousand specialists. At the same time, scientific emigration does not stop and about 15 thousand young scientists leave the country every year. Moreover, most likely, they will never return, since many analysts are not confident that the situation for the normal work and life of Russian scientists will soon change.
Also, there are no comprehensive government measures to stimulate innovation in science. There is also no rapprochement between the domestic private sector and science, which is the main potential consumer of innovation. There are no attempts on the part of the state to encourage private business to order and implement innovations, as well as to promote innovative products to markets. To correct the situation, it is necessary for the entire society to realize responsibility for its country and its future.
How the country has changed during 18 years of Putin's presidency
During these holidays, a really important date slipped by unnoticed - 18 years since Putin headed the Russian state. No one officially marked the date, but meanwhile this is a good reason to take stock of the interim results. After all, during this time Russia managed to once again become the world's breadbasket, as in tsarist times, and even increased industrial production by one and a half times. What else has changed?
In the last days of December, experts summed up the results, but limited themselves only to the past 17th year. And here one cannot but agree with the president’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov, who highlighted first of all his economic successes, because Russia emerged from a two-year recession; in the first 10 months, GDP growth amounted to 1.6 percent.
However, the 18th year will, first of all, be a year of federal elections. Therefore, it would be much more interesting to look at more deep retrospective than one past year. For example, consider what positive developments and changes have occurred in Russia since Vladimir Putin was first elected president in March 2000.
However, as you know, in the status of acting president, Putin headed the country a little earlier - on December 31, 1999.
The economy has broken important records in 18 years
Yes, recent years in the economy have been quite difficult, given the sanctions confrontation between the West and Russia, as well as the financial crisis, many of the consequences of which we still feel. However, this crisis has been overcome for the most part, people have become accustomed to sanctions, and in the long term it is visible serious progress.
It is worth highlighting two economic indicators that were especially painful for our country in the 90s - a huge public debt and inflation that is not inferior to it. Over the past 18 years, a colossal breakthrough has been made in this direction. Debt has decreased by as much as 22.7 times during this time - from 69.1% of GDP in 2000 to 3.1% in 2016. Inflation was also defeated. If in 2000 it was 20.2%, then already in 2006, for the first time in the modern history of Russia, it fell below 10%, and as of December 4, 2017, it reached a record 2.5% in annual terms.
The unemployment rate has also decreased over 18 years. This figure decreased from 10.6% to 5.2% of the economically active population, reaching its historical minimum for our country. For clarity, it is worth noting that in the European Union (for which unemployment has generally been a sore subject in recent years) it is 7.4%, in the euro area - 8.8%, in France - 9.7%, in Austria - 9.4% , in Italy – 11.1%, in Spain – 16.38%, in Montenegro – more than 20%, in Greece – 21%.
At the same time, Russia managed to increase its gold and foreign exchange reserves. During the reporting period, our country's international reserves increased by more than 30 times – from 12 to 378 billion dollars. The general recovery of the economy also contributed to the growth of its investment attractiveness. Even against the backdrop of the difficulties of recent years caused by sanctions pressure, the overall volume of investments has increased by more than 2.5 times.
If these indicators look abstract to some, then what could be more real than industrial growth? And it was significant in 2000–2017. Russian industry demonstrated increase in production by 55.4%.
Livestock farming also showed significant progress. Pork production almost doubled (from 2.2 million tons in 2000 to 4.4 million tons in 2016), eggs 1.3 times (from 24.2 to 34.4 billion pieces), poultry meat 6 times (from 1.1 million tons to 6.2 million tons).
Successful military reform took place
As Dmitry Abzalov, president of the Center for Strategic Communications, told the VZGLYAD newspaper, during these 18 years, the successes of the economy, in particular the military-industrial complex, contributed to the modernization of the armed forces. In addition to increasing the pay of the military and a general increase in army expenses, cardinal reforms were carried out, the army was equipped the latest models of weapons and equipment. In particular, in 2017 alone, the level of re-equipment of the army was 62%. Thanks to all this, a radically new look of the Russian Armed Forces was formed, which the world community could see, for example, in Syria.
Another successful area has been the development of information technology, especially in recent years. The level of Russian programmers is confirmed by first places in international competitions. In particular, in 2016, Russians took all three prizes at the World Programming Olympiad.
The development of the IT segment became possible, firstly, thanks to fundamental science and technical school, and secondly, thanks to the active growth of the domestic market and the achievements of Russian companies in foreign markets. Thirdly, thanks to the high development of the necessary infrastructure, for example, Internet access, in our country, Abzalov emphasized.
We got out of the demographic hole
Another important area of life in our country is demographic policy. And, perhaps, it turned out to be no less breakthrough than economics. Everyone remembers the demographic hole of the 1990s. How is the situation now?
Just four years ago, the country achieved positive natural population growth for the first time since 1991, which amounted to 25 thousand people. Between 2000 and 2016, the birth rate increased by one and a half times. If in 2000 it was 8.6 per 1000 people, then in 2016 it was 12.9, and from January to October last year it was 11.6. If in 2000 only 29% of Russian families had two children, then in 2016 – already 41%. The share of third and subsequent births increased from 11 to 19%.
Measures contributed to the increase in the birth rate family support, adopted by the government all these years, such as, for example, payment of maternity capital.
“According to our expert estimates, the measures that were taken in 2006, together with the measures taken in 2011-2012, resulted in from 2 million to 2.5 million additional births. Without these measures, we most likely would not have had such results,”– General Director of the Institute of Scientific and Social Expertise Sergei Rybalchenko told Gazeta.ru.
It is difficult to single out the most effective demographic measure - they work as a “package,” says Alla Makarentseva, head of the RANEPA Laboratory for Demography and Migration Research.
“If we talk about recent years, then, rather, this is a decrease Queues for kindergartens and the first steps towards making nursery groups available and, in general, establishing a balance between work and raising children - all services related to child care,” she emphasized.
Played a huge role in increasing the birth rate reduction in infant mortality. A set of measures in the healthcare sector, including the opening of perinatal centers, made it possible to reduce its risk by 2.6 times. In 2000, the infant mortality rate was 15.3 per 1,000 births, and in 2017 it was 5.3. And this a historical low for our country. By the way, in the USA in 2016 this figure was 5.8, in Europe – 6.64, in Ukraine – 8, in Georgia – 15.6.
Another important aspect of demographic policy was increase in life expectancy, which, by the way, also remains an important indirect incentive to increase the birth rate. Overall life expectancy in 2000–2016 increased by 6.6 years and reached 71.9 years. And in 2017, for the first time in the history of our country, it reached 72.6 years.
It is important to note that the mortality rate from circulatory diseases decreased by 1.37 times from 2007 to 2016 (from 846 per 100 thousand people in 2000 to 616 in 2016). During the same time, the mortality rate as a result of road accidents fell 1.8 times: from 27 to 15 per 100 thousand population.
Medicine has become more high-tech
Increasing natural growth and life expectancy, as well as reducing infant mortality, are impossible without qualitative changes in the medical field, and this is not only the opening of perinatal centers. State financing of healthcare from 2000 to 2017 in real terms increased almost 3 times, and in nominal terms - from 204.5 billion rubles in 2000 to almost three trillion in 2017.
Not only has the health of the population improved over the past 18 years, but so has its literacy. And the place to start here is by increasing the accessibility of education.
Over these years there were almost completely queues for kindergartens have been eliminated. Since 2012, about 800 thousand places in kindergartens have been created. As a result, the enrollment of children in preschool educational institutions increased from 64.6% in 2014 to almost up to 100% in 2017.
Improvements have also been made to the quality of education. In particular, last year a record was set for the number of schoolchildren who received the maximum 300 points on the Unified State Exam, and the number of those who did not overcome the minimum threshold on the Unified State Exam, on the contrary, decreased by half. In addition, if in 2001 Russian elementary school students took 16th place in an international study of reading literacy, then in 2016 they already rose to first place.
Expenditures on science also increased. Funding for civil science from the federal budget increased almost 20 times (from 17.4 billion rubles in 2000 to almost 350 billion in 2017), and funding for basic research increased 14 times (from 8.2 to 117.5 billion rubles) . All this contributed to an increase in the number of young scientists (under the age of 39). Since 2000, their number has increased 1.5 times and today accounts for 43% of the total number of researchers.
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